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Euro dollar eases to support on weak retail sales, weak services PMI and complications regarding the second bailout program for Greece. Is it just drifting in the range? Or is breakdown around the corner? As US traders return from their holiday, the market is set for more action.

Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and what’s going on in the markets.

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session: The euro dropped from the higher end to the lower end during this active session,.
  • Current range 1.4450 to 1.4550.

EUR USD Chart July 5 2011

  • Further levels in both directions: Below 1.4450, 1.4375, 1.4282, 1.4220, 1.4160, 1.4120, 1.4030, 1.3950,
  • Above:   1.4550,1.4650, 1.47, 1.4775, 1.4882.
  • 1.4450 is a key line separating ranges. A break lower could open the door for quicker falls.
  • 1.4550 proved to be strong barrier on the downside a few weeks ago and now on the upside. The failure to break higher just now sent the pair lower.

Euro/Dollar in lower end of the range  – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 8:00 Final Services PMI. Exp. 54.2 points. Actual 53.7. This is rarely revised, so this is quite disappointing.
  • 9:00 European Retail Sales. Exp. -0.9%. Actual -1.1%
  • 14:00 US  Factory Orders. Exp. +1.1%.

For more events later in the week, see the Euro to dollar forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Germany slowing down: The downwards revision of the Services PMI in Germany and in other European countries is uncommon and weighs on the euro.
  • Trichet set to hike, but what will he hint? The ECB will likely raise the rates despite weaker data, including weaker inflation. The big question is his hint towards the next move. It depends on specific code words that he will use. See the ECB Preview for details on this big event that awaits the euro on Thursday.
  • Chinese worries: After a weak Manufacturing PMI last week, worries are intensifying from the economic giant, especially around the huge debt pile that sits on municipalities, and inflation which is hardly in control. The statement from Australia’s central bank was quite dovish.
  • Will Greece still default? Rating agency S&P reasoned quite logically that the “volunteering” of German and French banks to “contribute” wasn’t genuinely out of free will. This means that Greece will be at a state of selective default, keeping it away from the markets for a longer time, and putting the ECB in a tight spot regarding its massive holding of Greek debt.
  • A good Non-Farm Payrolls? The event that will close the week is the release of NFP in the US. A first good sign came from the manufacturing sector. US ISM Manufacturing PMI came out better than expected, and this is encouraging.
  • Greek votes pass.  Greek parliament passed the austerity measures with a solid majority. Also the second vote passed successfully, despite loud protests. This paves the way for the approval of the next tranche of aid for Greece in the meeting of finance ministers this Sunday. The acting managing director of the IMF, Lipsky, will attend this meeting.
  • No QE3: In the press conference that followed the rate decision, Ben Bernanke played down the option of another quantitative easing program. He compared the same period one year ago, and said that employment is rising faster and there is no threat of deflation now. No new dollar printing is good for the dollar. QE2 just ended now. Will we see a stronger dollar?

 

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