EUR/USD May 20 – Under Pressure Ahead of Fed Minutes

The euro has posted losses on Tuesday, as EUR/USD has  fallen below the 1.37 level in Monday’s European session.   In economic news, German PPI continues to look weak, posting its third decline in four tries. It’s another quiet day in the US, with no economic releases on Tuesday. The markets are keeping a close eye on the Federal Reserve minutes, which will be released on Wednesday.

• EUR/USD was steady in the Asian session, but dipped below the 1.37  line late in the session. The  pair is showing some movement in the European session but remains close to 1.37.

Current range: 1.37 to 1.3740.

Further levels in both directions:  

• Below: 1.37, 1.3650, 1.3560, 1.3515 and 1.3450
• Above: 1.3740, 1.3785, 1.3830, 1.3865, 1.3905, 1.3964, 1.40, 1.4055 and 1.4105
• On the downside, 1.37 is fluid.  1.3560 is a strong support level.  
• 1.3740 is the next resistance line.

 

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 6:00 German PPI. Estimate 0.0%. Actual -0.1%.
• 16:30 FOMC Member Charles Plesser Speaks.
• 17:00 FOMC  Member William Dudley  Speaks.

*All times are GMT

For more events and lines, see the  Euro to dollar  forecast.

 

EUR/USD Sentiment

• US Housing Numbers Shine:  Last week wound up with  encouraging housing numbers out of the US. Building Permits jumped to 1.08 million, well above the estimate of 1.01 million. This was the highest level we’ve seen since December 2006. Housing Starts continues to move higher and climbed to 1.07M, compared to the estimate of 0.98M. This marked a five-month high. Meanwhile, UoM Consumer Sentiment dipped to 81.8 points, short of the estimate of 84.7 points.
• Weak inflation persists in  Eurozone: Inflation  indicators continue to look weak in the Eurozone, and this was reinforced on Tuesday as German PPI came in at -0.1%, short of the estimate of 0.0%. The ECB has tried to downplay concerns over lack of inflation, but when Mario Drahgi acknowledged that the central bank could take action in June, the euro responded with sharp losses. If  we don’t see a sudden improvement in  inflation numbers, there is a strong likelihood that  the ECB  will be  forced into making a move.
• Eurozone GDP numbers disappoint:  GDP is the primary gauge of economic activity, and the April numbers pointed to trouble for the Eurozone. Eurozone Flash GDP dipped to 0.2% in Q1, short of the estimate of 0.3%. French and Italian GDP releases also disappointed, as both weakened in April and missed expectations. On a bright note, German Preliminary GDP jumped 0.8% in Q1, its best showing since Q1 in 2013.  This edged above the estimate of 0.7%. GDP data is doubly important now that ECB head Mario Draghi has said that the Bank could take action in June, depending on inflation and growth forecasts.

 

More:  Is the Eurozone Crisis Really Over?