EUR/USD has posted slight gains on Thursday, as the pair trades slightly above the 1.36 line in the European session. We can expect thin trading during the day, with German and French markets closed for a bank holiday. The sole Eurozone release is the Italian 10-year Bond Auction. In the US, it promises to be a busy day, with three key events on the calendar – Preliminary GDP and the all-important Unemployment Claims and Pending Home Sales.
- EUR/USD showed little movement in the Asian session, trading close to 1.3630. The pair has edged lower in the European session.
Current range: 1.3560 to 1.3650. Further levels in both directions: 
- Below: 1.3560, 1.3515 and 1.3475 and 1.34
- Above: 1.3650, 1.37, 1.3740, 1.3785, 1.3830, 1.3865, 1.3905, 1.3964 and 1.40
- 1.3560 continues to provide strong support.
- On the upside, 1.3650 is the next resistance line. The round number of 1.37 follows.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- Tentative – Italian 10-year Bond Auction.
- 12:30 US Preliminary GDP. Estimate -0.6%.
- 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 321K.
- 12:30 US Preliminary GDP Price Index. Estimate 1.3%.
- 14:00 US Pending Home Sales. Estimate 1.1%.
- 14:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 110B.
- 15:00 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -0.1M.
*All times are GMT For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- US consumer confidence strong, manufacturing data mixed: If the US recovery is to strengthen, it will need an optimistic US consumer who is comfortable loosening the purse strings. There was good news in this regard on Tuesday, as CB Consumer Confidence continued to look sharp, improving to 83.0 points in April, which was within expectations. Manufacturing data was mixed, as Core Durable Goods Orders posted a paltry gain of 0.1%, while Durable Goods Orders easily beat the estimate with a 0.8% gain. The markets are keeping a close eye on Thursday, with the release of Preliminary GDP and the all-important Unemployment Claims.
- Markets brace for anemic US GDP: Although German and French markets are closed, traders should be prepared for some movement from EUR/USD later on Thursday, as the US releases three market movers – Preliminary GDP, Unemployment Claims and Pending Home Sales. The markets are expecting a decline in the GDP reading, something which hasn’t occurred since 2009. Will the indicator surprise the markets with a gain in Q1? Pending Home Sales are expected to soften in April, while Unemployment Claims are expected to improve this week, after a disappointing performance in the previous release.
- Draghi admits deflation fears: Despite clear signals to the contrary, ECB head Mario Draghi has shrugged off concerns about deflation in the Eurozone for months. That finally changed on Monday, when Draghi acknowledged that deflation was a serious issue and that the ECB stood ready to take action. The markets have looked at his remarks as another sign that the ECB could take action in June. The central bank has a host of tools it can implement, including a reduction in interest rates, asset purchases, or liquidity injections. Any one of these moves would likely have a strong impact on EUR/USD, which has retracted somewhat since testing the 1.40 level earlier in May.
- Eurozone abuzz as eurosceptic parties surge: Anti-EU parties posted stunning victories in European parliamentary elections held on Sunday. These “eurosceptic” parties posted made strong gains across the continent, notably in France, the UK and Greece. With the Eurozone struggling with low growth and high unemployment, voters had a chance to lash back in the elections, and their frustration and anger was heard loud and clear at the ballot box. French Prime Minister Manuel Valls called the results an “earthquake” and the elections could weigh on the euro, although so far the currency has remained firm.
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