Most currencies have fallen against the dollar towards the testimony of Ben Bernanke in Washington and the release of the recent FOMC meeting minutes.
Some had good reasons to fall and some didn’t have specific ones. The euro stood out by rising ahead of the Fed-fest, but it certainly has no reasons to rise. Will the euro “sell the fact”?
Update 14:25 GMT: Ben Bernanke offered no hint of tapering in the prepared statement. This sent EUR/USD as high as 1.2997. However, the limited rally didn’t last too long: EUR/USD is now back to 1.2945, the level seen before the testimony was released.
Update 14:30 GMT: When asked about an exit strategy, Bernanke did respond, and the greenback reacted with a comeback. EUR/USD is down to 1.2920.
Update 14:50 GMT: EUR/USD touched a low of 1.2890 so far before rebounding. All in all, EUR/USD is lower after Bernanke.
The economic situation in the euro-zone remains weak, including in Germany. No big data releases have been made in Europe.
- The pound fell on awful retail sales. Blaming the weather didn’t help.
- The Swiss franc lost ground on talk of negative rates from SNB chief Thomas Jordan. USD/CHF is marching forward.
- The Canadian dollar saw fresh weakness on lower than expected retail sales data, following on previous weakness.
- The rate decision in Japan didn’t break new ground, but also didn’t talk about the yen weakness as economy minister Amari did earlier in the week.
- The Aussie got lower consumer sentiment and a worrying report about investment. It is also vulnerable.
If the markets are pricing in no hint of tapering from Bernanke, why are other currencies remaining weak against the dollar? Why is the euro standing out?
EUR/USD rose from 1.29 and stalled under support at 1.2960. Further resistance is at 1.30. Support stands at 1.2880.
The most probable scenario for Bernanke is that he says nothing new. Is the euro going to fall even if Bernanke says nothing at all? What do you think?
Further reading: Forex Analysis: EUR/USD Leaning towards Bearish Trend Resumption
Here is a live chart of EUR/USD, showing the recent rise.
Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs