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EUR/USD reached a new peak of 1.1286 1.1295, above the previous high of 1.1284. The next level is very close: 1.13, the high seen on election night in the US.

Above 1.13, we will already be at levels seen only in September 2016 – a 9-month high. The resistance levels to watch are 1.1360 which was a cap for the pair back in August and 1.1420, a level that was a swing high back in June 2016. Support awaits at 1.12 and 1.1160.

The reason for the jump is fully related to the US dollar and easy to point out. Fresh data released in America shows inflation sliding: headline CPI is at 1.9% and more importantly, Core CPI is at 1.7%. This implies that the Fed’ favourite measure is on course to 1.3% in May after dropping to 1.5% in April.

On this background, there is some speculation about the Fed NOT raising rates later today. Janet Yellen and her colleagues do not like to surprise markets, but the data is really bad.

In case the Fed does NOT raise rates, the greenback could extend its crash.

Here is the euro/dollar daily chart: