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EUR/USD  is on a recovery path, extending the gains seen after the mixed Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. Is there room for a wider recovery or is Draghi’s determination set to send the pair down? A light calendar today leaves speculation intact.  

Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and sentiment moving the pair.

  • Asian session: The pair managed to climb from support at 1.2360 towards 1.24, but still down..
  • Current range:  1.2360 to 1.2440.

Further levels in both directions:

EURUSDU November 10 technical 30 minute chart for currency trading euro dollar fundamental

  • Below: 1.2440,  1.2360, 1.2250, 1.2140, 1.2042.
  • Above: 1.25, 1.2570, 1.2620 and 1.2660
  • 1.2440 is an old line  and now switches back to support.
  • Above 1.25, 1.2570 serves as resistance.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 9:00 Italian industrial output. Exp. +0.2%, actual -0.9%.
  • 9:30  Euro-zone Sentix Investor Confidence. Exp. -6.9, actual -11.9 points.

* All times are GMT.

For more events and lines, see the  Euro to dollar  forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Mixed Non-Farm Payrolls: The headline number disappointed with a gain of only 214K jobs in October. However, significant upwards revisions, a falling unemployment rate and a higher participation rate all countered the headline figure but were unable to balance the headline. It seems that profit taking was in place on Friday and follows today, after a nice run of the greenback. More:  EUR/USD Reversal: What Does It Take? – Nordea
  • Determined Draghi: ECB president Mario reasserted his leadership by bringing forward a unified message about readiness to do more to battle low inflation, as the euro-zone faces a potential third recession. The commitment to bring the balance sheet towards the 2012 levels has now entered the introductory statement, and that in turn was signed unanimously by all ECB members. This put to an end the reported discontent within the bank.. More: Draghi Did It Again; EUR/USD En-Route To 1.20 – Danske, and also  Expect Draghi To Prevail; Staying Short EUR/USD targeting 1.18 – BNPP.
  • Euro-zone GDP eyed: Did Germany slip into a recession? While official expectations stand on growth in Q3 after a contraction in Q2, there is no clear consensus. Friday’s GDP numbers from the various member states as well as from the euro-zone as a whole are keeping investors nervous.
  • Hawkish Fed: The Fed ended QE and also  sounded quite bullish about employment, acknowledging “solid job gains”. In addition, Yellen and her colleagues were not  too worried about  inflation and there was one dovish dissenter for a change. All this supported the greenback.

In our latest podcast, we preview the NFP, run down the ECB, talk about the huge Japanese move, preview the UK and also talk about Brazil:

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