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EUR/USD  is down, trading in the lower range respecting the previous support line as resistance. No major events have rocked markets as some countries are on holiday, but we got a reminder that outright QE is certainly an option for the ECB. Can the pair challenge low support on thin volume?  

Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and sentiment moving the pair.

  • Asian session: The pair attempted to recover, but was blocked by 1.2440…
  • Current range:  1.2360 to 1.2440.

Further levels in both directions:

EURUSD Technical analysis November 11 2014 euro dollar analysis

  • Below: 1.2360, 1.2250, 1.2140, 1.2042.
  • Above: 1.2440, 1.25, 1.2570, 1.2620 and 1.2660
  • 1.2440 is  a perfect separator, now back to resistance.
  • 1.2360 is the multi-year low.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 12:30 US NFIB Small Business Index. Exp. 95.1 points.

* All times are GMT.

For more events and lines, see the  Euro to dollar  forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Reminder of EZ QE: European Central Bank member Mersch said that sovereign QE is still an option if the situation deteriorates. Maybe the Germans don’t like to hear this, but such words keep the pressure on the euro and this helps battle deflation.
  • Holiday in the US: It’s November 11th. In the US it’s Veteran’s Day and in Canada it’s Remembrance Day. This means a quiet US session. Thin volume can lead to boredom but also to erratic moves.
  • Mixed Non-Farm Payrolls: The headline number disappointed with a gain of only 214K jobs in October. However, significant upwards revisions, a falling unemployment rate and a higher participation rate all countered the headline figure but were unable to balance the headline. It seems that profit taking was in place on Friday and follows today, after a nice run of the greenback. More:  EUR/USD Reversal: What Does It Take? – Nordea
  • Determined Draghi: ECB president Mario reasserted his leadership by bringing forward a unified message about readiness to do more to battle low inflation, as the euro-zone faces a potential third recession. The commitment to bring the balance sheet towards the 2012 levels has now entered the introductory statement, and that in turn was signed unanimously by all ECB members. This put to an end the reported discontent within the bank.. More: Draghi Did It Again; EUR/USD En-Route To 1.20 – Danske, and also  Expect Draghi To Prevail; Staying Short EUR/USD targeting 1.18 – BNPP.
  • Euro-zone GDP eyed: Did Germany slip into a recession? While official expectations stand on growth in Q3 after a contraction in Q2, there is no clear consensus. Friday’s GDP numbers from the various member states as well as from the euro-zone as a whole are keeping investors nervous.

In our latest podcast, we preview the NFP, run down the ECB, talk about the huge Japanese move, preview the UK and also talk about Brazil:

Download it directly here.

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