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EUR/USD  is back to trading around the upper end of the recent trading range, under 1.25. We finally get some significant US indicators and tension also mounts towards the release of euro-zone GDP.   We  also have a speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Will she mention the dollar or refrain from talking about monetary policy at all?

Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and sentiment moving the pair.

  • Asian session: The pair attempted to recover, but was blocked by 1.2440…
  • Current range:  1.2360 to 1.2440.

Further levels in both directions:

EURUSD Technical analysis November 13 2014 euro dollar in range

  • Below: 1.2440, 1.2360, 1.2250, 1.2140, 1.2042.
  • Above: 1.25, 1.2570, 1.2620 and 1.2660
  • 1.2440 is  a perfect separator, now back to  support
  • 1.2360 is the multi-year low and 1.25 is a very round number.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 7:00  German Final CPI. Exp. -0.3%, actual -0.3%. HICP remains at 0.7% y/y.
  • 7:45 French CPI. Exp. -0.1%, actual 0% – better than expected.
  • 9:00 ECB Monthly Bulletin. It basically explains last week’s determined rate decision.
  • 13:30 US jobless claims. Exp. 282K. See how to trade the claims with USDJPY..
  • 15:00 US JOLTs Job Openings. Exp. 4.81 million.
  • 17:30 US FOMC member Charles Plosser talks. He is a known hawk.
  • 17:45 US Fed Chair Janet Yellen talks.
  • 19:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Exp. -11.5 billion.
  • 20:30 US FOMC member  Narayana Kocherlakota

* All times are GMT.

For more events and lines, see the  Euro to dollar  forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • More jobs data: Today we get jobless claims, which see their moving average at a 14 year low and JOLTs, which are closely watched by the Fed. These numbers are set to shed more light on the labor situation, after the mixed NFP  The headline number disappointed with a gain of only 214K jobs in October. However, significant upwards revisions, a falling unemployment rate and a higher participation rate all countered the headline figure but were unable to balance the headline. It seems that profit taking was in place on Friday and follows today, after a nice run of the greenback. More:  EUR/USD Reversal: What Does It Take? – Nordea
  • QE of no QE?:: ECB president Mario reasserted his leadership by bringing forward a unified message about readiness to do more to battle low inflation, as the euro-zone faces a potential third recession. The commitment to bring the balance sheet towards the 2012 levels has now entered the introductory statement, and that in turn was signed unanimously by all ECB members. This put to an end the reported discontent within the bank.. More: Draghi Did It Again; EUR/USD En-Route To 1.20 – Danske, and also  Expect Draghi To Prevail; Staying Short EUR/USD targeting 1.18 – BNPP.
  • Euro-zone GDP eyed: Did Germany slip into a recession? While official expectations stand on growth in Q3 after a contraction in Q2, there is no clear consensus. Friday’s GDP numbers from the various member states as well as from the euro-zone as a whole are keeping investors nervous.

In our latest podcast, we preview the NFP, run down the ECB, talk about the huge Japanese move, preview the UK and also talk about Brazil:

Download it directly here.

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