EUR/USD is steady in Wednesday trading. The pair has edged higher in the European session and is trading in the mid-1.35 range. With the debt limit just one day away, marathon talks continue in Washington as Congress tries to reach an agreement to raise the debt ceiling and reopen government services. In economic news, Eurozone CPI posted a gain of 1.1%, matching expectations. It’s a very light schedule in the US, with NAHB Housing Market Index the only data being released.
Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.
EUR/USD Technical
- In the Asian session, EUR/USD was quiet, touching a low of 1.3506 and consolidating at 1.3516. The pair has edged higher in the European session.
- Current range: 1.3500 to 1.3570.
Further levels in both directions: 
- Below: 1.3500, 1.3460, 1.3415, 1.3325, 1.3240, 1.3175, 1.31, 1.3050 and 1.3000.
- Above: 1.3570, 1.3650, 1.3710, 1.3800, 1.3870, 1.3940 and 1.40.
- On the downside, 1.3500 is under pressure. 1.3460 follows.
- 1.3570 is providing resistance. 1.3650 is next.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 8:00 Italian Trade Balance. Exp. 5.21B. Actual 0.96B.
- 9:00 Eurozone CPI. Exp. 1.1%, Actual 1.1%.
- 9:00 Eurozone Core CPI. Exp. 1.0%, Actual 1.0%.
- 9:00 Eurozone Trade Balance. Exp. 12.4B. Actual 12.3B.
- 14:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Exp. 58 points.
- 18:00 ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks.
- 18:00 US Beige Book.
- 21:30 US FOMC Member Esther George Speaks.
* All times are GMT.
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- No agreement on debt limit: The clock continues to tick away as politicians in Washington scramble to reach an agreement on the debt ceiling. The US debt stands at $16.7 trillion, and the debt limit will be reached on Thursday if Congress fails to reach an agreement to raise the limit. If the debt limit is reached, the US treasury will be unable to pay the country’s bills. This could lead to the US defaulting on its debt, which could case chaos in the domestic and international markets. The Republicans have floated proposals which would delay some provisions in President Obama’s healthcare plan. The Democrats have countered that they will only talk about health care once an agreement is reached. With both sides continuing to play hardball, the relative calm we’ve seen in the markets could dissipate if an agreement is not reached soon.
- Fitch says could cut US rating: As the politicians in Washington continue to squabble and shoot down rival proposals to end the debt stalemate, Fitch Ratings warned on Tuesday that it could cut the US’s triple AAA rating if the crisis is not resolved. Fitch stated that it would not make any moves before early 2014, but the statement reflects growing frustration in the markets over the continuing inability of Congress to agree on a budget or the raising of the debt ceiling. The ratings agency has put the US debt on a negative watch and said that the crisis had cast doubt over the credit of the United States, and had undermined confidence “in the role of the US dollar as the pre-eminent global reserve currency”.
- Eurozone CPI drops: Inflation indicators continue to point to weak inflation in the Eurozone. Eurozone CPI dropped from 1.3% to 1.1% in September, while Eurozone Core CPI edged lower, from 1.1% to 1.0%. Both indexes matched expectations. The inflation numbers point to weakening economic activity and continue to be a source of concern for Eurozone policymakers.
- German coalition talks hit snag: German Chancellor Angela Merkel rolled to an easy victory in last month’s elections, but that was the easy part. Merkel continues to have difficulty forming a coalition, and has been unable to reach an agreement with the Greens party. This leaves the Social Democrats as her sole potential partner and the negotiations are expected to be protracted.
Share
