EUR/USD Outlook – April 12-16 2010
EUR/USD Forecast

EUR/USD Outlook – April 12-16 2010

The Euro finished an exciting week almost unchanged. The upcoming week has inflation figures as well as other indicators. Here’s an outlook for the European events and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

EUR USD forecast

Note that also Euro crosses had an exciting week. In particular, EUR/JPY dropped below a support line and then recovered, moving in a range of 440 pips during the week. OK, let’s start:

  1. German Final CPI: Published on Tuesday at 6:00 GMT. The first inflation figure comes from Germany early in the week. Prices have returned to normal after moving like a see-saw. The rise of 0.5% that was reported in the initial release will probably be confirmed now.
  2. French CPI: Published on Tuesday at 6:45 GMT. Europe’s second largest economy releases its consumer price index shortly after Germany. Prices are predicted to rise by 0.5%, less than last month’s 0.6% rise. The release of both figures almost together will is likely to move the Euro.
  3. Industrial Production: Published on  Wednesday  at 9:00 GMT. Although Germany and France already released their figures, this release still tends to surprise and move the Euro. Last month’s rise of 1.7% was a reflection of the previous month’s drop. A more modest rise of 0.4% is expected this time.
  4. ECB Monthly Bulletin: Published on Thursday at 8:00 GMT. A week after the rate decision, this release exposes the figures that stood before the bankers’ eyes before making their decision. There could be hints about future policy as well.
  5. Trade Balance: Published on Thursday at 9:00 GMT. The European trade balance wasn’t published last month due to technical difficulties. So, we’ll get two releases at once – for January and February. Both are expected to show a smaller surplus than the last release for December, that stood on 7 billion euros.
  6. CPI: Published on Friday at 9:00 GMT. The final inflation release for the week is for the whole continent – Europe’s prices are rising quite slowly. The annually adjusted rise of 1.5% will probably confirmed. Core CPI is expected to be revised from 0.8% to 0.9%. Only a serious rise will pave the way for a rate hike.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro had a bad start to the week – it began by dropping under the previous week’s low of 1.3380 and got close to 1.3267 – the year to date low. It then made a comeback, and managed to close at 1.3497.

Most of the lines haven’t changed since last week’s outlook. The current range is between 1.3380 and 1.36, which was the peak of the previous week.

Above 1.36, the next line of resistance is strong – 1.3850 proved as a stronghold – it sent the Euro down after a failed attempt to break this line. Even higher, 1.40 is a significant line, followed by 1.42 – they were support lines a few months ago.

Looking down, 1.3267 now has a more important position, after holding EUR/USD from dropping lower. A break below this line will lead the way to 1.3080, which was the area where the pair began the upwards move last year.

I remain neutral on EUR/USD.

Fear sent it down and hope helped it recover. All in all, the Greek news continue to dominate the pair’s trading – trading which has become wild, yet indecisive.

This pair receives many interesting reviews on the web. Here are my favorites:

  • James Chen talks discusses the bearish breakdowns within the downtrend.
  • Casey Stubbs brings his recent results on the pair, using 1 hour charts.
  • DailyFX says that the Euro troubles may reach a boiling point as Greece plans debt auction.
  • The Geek Knows reviews the week and looks forward.

Further reading on Forex Crunch:

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Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.