EUR/USD Outlook – December 27-31

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The Euro had yet another bad week, which it closed lower. The light calendar during the holidays should supply stable trading, but there still are downside risks. Here’s an outlook for the Irish events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

Europe’s second largest economy, France, isn’t far from danger – it could also be downgraded. Credit downgrades and warnings definitely hurt the Euro in the past week. Will it continue lower? Let’s start:

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

euro dollar forecast December 27-31

  1. German Prelim CPI: Wednesday. Europe’s largest economy, and the main driver, is expecting a significant rise in inflation – 0.9%, after 0.1% last month. This is the preliminary release.
  2. M3 Money Supply: Wednesday, 9:00. After a few months of drops, money supply is on the rise, and is now expected to accelerate its growth with a rise of 1.6% after 1% last month.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Euro/Dollar drifted downwards throughout the week, and touched a new low of 1.3055, before closing at 1.3121.

Most of the lines haven’t changed since last week. Looking up, 1.3180 is now a minor line of resistance on the way up, after being a support line last week.

1.3267 provides minor and the next minor point. It was a pivotal line in recent weeks. Higher, 1.3334, which was a peak earlier in the year and worked as resistance recently, provides additional support.

Above,  1.3440 is already a much stronger line, despite the temporary breakout two weeks ago. This is a strong line that worked as support at the beginning of the year and also a few weeks ago. Above, 1.3575 is a minor resistance line after working as support in recent weeks.

Higher, 1.37 is stronger line, after being a peak in the spring and a double bottom a few weeks ago. It’s closely followed by 1.3785 that was a swing high before the big collapse. The next minor line is 1.3865.

Even higher, 1.3950 worked as a pivotal line when EUR/USD was trading in a higher range. Strong resistance appears just after the round number, at 1.4030. There are many more lines above, but they’re still far.

Looking down, 1.3114 is the first immediate, yet week support line. It had a historic role which is now fading out. Lower, 1.2970 proved to be a strong line of support in the past week, just under the round number. It’s closely followed by 1.2920, which capped the pair in the summer.

Below, 1.2722 worked in both direction during the summer. It’s followed by 1.2587, the lowest level in 5 months – it was a bottom in August.

I remain bearish on EUR/USD.

Despite the recent descent, there’s still room for more falls before the end of the year. The long series of downgrades and warnings, plus the Chinese rate hike, all weight on EUR/USD.

Here are some great EUR/USD views on the web:

  • Kathy Lien looks at history, and sees hope for EUR/USD this week.
  • Andriy marks levels for the next week, and sees further downside risk.
  • TheGeekKnows writes a review of the past week looks forward.

Further reading:

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.