EUR/USD Outlook for April 18-22

Euro/Dollar marked a range in the past week, as opposing forces kept it tight. The upcoming week features important surveys and more important data. Here’s an outlook for the events that will rock the Euro, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

The Euro enjoyed the rate hike and the dollar’s weakness, but now the debt crisis came in through the front door and held the pair steady, despite more dollar weakness. Which force will win this week?

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

1. Consumer Confidence: Monday, 14:00. This official survey from Eurostat is considered a realistic barometer of the mood all over the continent. It has shown a negative score for a long time, reflecting worries. It’s expected to remain tick up from -11 to -10 this time.
2. Flash PMI: Tuesday – begins in France at 7:00, continues in Germany at 7:30 and ends in the figures for the whole continent at 8:00. All the indicators, for both manufacturing and services sectors in both regions, are above the critical 50 point mark separating economic growth and squeeze. All of them are expected to make minor changes up or down. Of special note are the French manufacturing PMI which is lower than all the rest, at 55.4 (55.6 exp.) and the German services PMI which is likely to dip under the 60 point mark.
3. Current Account: Tuesday, 8:00. Germany had a smaller surplus than expected, and this will likely push the figure for the whole continent lower, from a deficit of 0.7 to 2.3 billion. A surplus will boost the Euro.
4. German PPI: Wednesday, 6:00. This important measure of  inflation  is moving higher at a faster pace during 2011, justifying the rate hike. A rise of 0.8% is predicted in producer prices, more than last month’s 0.7% that was inline with expectations.
5. German Ifo Business Climate: Thursday, 8:00. This wide survey is highly regarded and almost always helps the Euro as it usually exceeds the average expectations and advanced higher. For a change, it’s predicted to dip this time from 111.1 to 110.9 points. A rise to 112 cannot be ruled out. Note that contrary to its business climate reports, the head of the Ifo think tank isn’t too optimistic when it comes to the debt crisis.
6. NBB Business Climate: Thursday, 14:00. Last but not least, the small,yet important country of Belgium (2012 debt crisis?) reports its business climate figure. After advancing nicely, it’s now predicted to dip from 6.2 to 5.9, similar to the previous indicator.

* All times are GMT.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Euro/Dollar started the week with a drop to 1.4375, and marked a new line (didn’t appear last week). It then traded in a range between 1.4375 and 1.4520. All in all, it is little changed from last week.

Looking down, 1.4375 serves as immediate support, working as such several times just now. It’s followed by the previous one year high of 1.4282, that was a very tough resistance line, and now switches to support. Together with 1.4250, they form a region of support.

Lower, 1.4160 was pivotal when the pair traded in the previous lower range. It’s followed by the distinctive and tough 1.4030 line, which separated the different the different ranges Euro/Dollar traded in.

Further below, 1.3860, which was a peak early in the year and later worked as support is the next level. Next down the road, we encounter 1.3750, which worked as support last summer and also recently – working as a stepping stone.

There are many lines below, with 1.3440 being significant, but they’re quite far now.

Looking up, the pair is capped by 1.4520, which is the top border of the current range.  Higher, 1.47 is a rather minor line of resistance, after working as support back in October 2009.

More serious resistance appears at 1.48 – this line provided support for many days at the end of 2009, and is of high importance if the pair reaches these levels.  Just above the round number of 1.5020, resistance is found at 1.5020 – this line had the same role back then.

The ultimate line of resistance is the December 2009 peak of 1.5144.  Beyond this line, we’re back to the highs of the summer of 2008, when oil was even higher than now, when the Euro passed the 1.60 mark.

I turn bearish on EUR/USD.

The debt crisis finally stops the rise of EUR/USD. A Greek default will be a serious precedent that will rock the continent’s banking system.

This pair receives a lot of coverage. Here are my picks:

• Micheal Derks says that  Obama’s fiscal epiphany unlikely to reverse dollar downtrend.
• FX Tech Strategy looks at EUR/GBP, and sees further gains after clearing n important level.
• Casey Stubbs analyzes EUR/USD with 4 hour charts, and sees a trade opportunity.
• James Chen sees the pair pull back after failing at key resistance.
• Andriy Miraru provides weekly support and resistance lines for major pairs, including EUR/USD.
• TheGeekKnows writes a review of the past week looks forward.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD to USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar
• For the Swiss franc, see the USD/CHF forecast.