Looking for the latest outlook, for the current week? Check out the section: EUR/USD Forecast.
The Euro had a bad week, with continuing Greek problems. It slipped down to a lower range. The upcoming week consists of more important surveys and important employment and inflation figures. Here’s an outlook for the upcoming week in Europe, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
EUR/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:
The Euro is falling across the board, also against the Japanese Yen and against the Pound. EUR/GBP began falling almost two weeks ago. Let’s start the review. The technical analysis (with a lower line) will follow:
- German GfK Consumer Climate:Published on Monday at 7:00 GMT. 2000 consumers are asked about their economic mood in this survey. After reaching a peak in September, at 4.3 points, this number has been falling and disappointing, reaching 3.3 points last month.
- French Consumer Spending: Published on Tuesday at 7:45 GMT. The continent’s second largest economy saw a disappointing dip in consumer spending after two strong months of rises. This index has been shaky throughout most of 2009.
- German Ifo Business Climate: Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. This is the main event in Euroland this week. Similar to the ZEW economic sentiment (that hurt the Euro last week), this highly respected survey has a strong impact. 7,000 businesses are asked about the sentiment. But contrary to the ZEW, this index has been on a steady rise for many months, reaching 94.7 last month within expectations.
- Current Account: Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT and overshadowed by the business climate figure. After one surprising month of surplus in September, Europe’s current account has shown a deficit. In the past three months, the deficit in the number of goods, services and money has been larger than expected, weighing on the Euro. It reached 4.6 billion last month.
- German Prelim CPI: Published on Wednesday. Germany’s prices are off the ground, but not to far away. After many months around 0, prices have risen by 0.8% last month. This early figure is collected from the various states during the day. A big leap in prices is necessary for thinking about a rate hike.
- German Unemployment Change: Published on Thursday at 8:55 GMT. Europe’s largest economy has seen a resilient job market, with a drop in the number of unemployed people for 6 straight months. Economists expected a rise each time. Last time, Germany saw only a small drop in unemployed people, only 3,000, something that seems to align with the rest of the continent.
- Consumer Confidence: Published on Thursday at 10:00 GMT. This survey of 2,000 people is an official release by Eurostat. In the past 8 months, this survey improved but continued to print a negative number, showing that pessimism still rules. The latest advance has been from -17 to -16.
- M3 Money Supply: Published on Friday at 9:00 GMT. The amount of money in circulation has printed a rare drop last month, weakening the Euro. The growth rate of money has slowed down gradually during the crisis, turning into a drop last month and disappointing economists again and again.
- CPI Flash Estimate: Published on Friday at 10:00 GMT. Following the German Flash CPI, an initial release is also made for the whole continent. In the past two months, inflation is significantly above 0, with annual rises of 0.5% and 0.9%. These numbers aren’t deflationary anymore, but still aren’t enough for a rate hike.
- Unemployment Rate: Published on Friday at 10:00 GMT. After ticking up 0.1% every month, the Euro-zone’s unemployment rate rose by 0.2% and reached the alarming number of 10%. This hurt the Euro, as the rate is no better than the American one. Although it’s not the earliest indicator in the continent, it tends to capture the headlines and impact policymakers. A drop is necessary for the Euro to rise.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD dived thus week into a lower range. The new range is marked by 1.42 that was the support line for the previous range and 1.40 which is a round number and also worked as stepping stone for the Euro on its way up.
After losing 1.42, EUR/USD traded between 1.4029 and 1.4182, keeping some distance from the range borders.
Above, 1.42, 1.4450, the previous border of the range is another resistance line. 1.4626 is another resistance line above that, followed by a major point at 1.48, which was the border of the high range.
Looking lower, 1.3750 is a very strong area of support for the Euro. It served as both a clear support line and resistance line in the past. Even lower, I’ve added a new line on last week’s outlook – 1.3420 is the next support line, quite far for now.
I remain bearish on the Euro.
The bearish sentiment proved correct, and it’s pushed by weak economic sentiment, a high unemployment rate and the Greek debt problems that refuse to leave us. The upcoming week will probably show more growth in other countries. While Germany is out of recession since Q2 and continues foward, the rest of the continent, especially the PIGS countries, are weighing on the continent.
This pair receives excellent analysis on the net. Here are some of my favorites:
- Casey Stubbs discusses the new bottom and analyzes the graphs with his 4-hour charts.
- James Chen talks about the flag consolidation breakdown and the Fibonacci retracement.
- The Geek Knows reviews the bearish week and looks ahead with his Koala system.
- TheLFB discuss the impact of Obama’s plan on the dollar.
- Mohammed Isah sees a rejection candle and say it will trigger corrective recovery.
Further reading on Forex Crunch:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
- For GBP/USD, look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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