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The troubled Euro, hit by Hungary and risk aversive trading following the Non-Farm Payrolls, is facing a busy week, with the rate decision being the climax. Here’s an outlook for the European events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

euro dollar eur usd forecast

No matter how the debt issues are handled, it now seems clear that the Euro-zone, either united or split, is facing a double dip recession. Austerity measures will take their toll on the economies, and the Euro as well. As European leaders are lowering their tone, the indicators return to play an important role. Let’s start:

  1. Sentix Investor Confidence: Published on Monday at 8:30 GMT. LAst month, this important indicator perfectly reflected the economic turmoil, in real time. This survey of 2,000 analysts and investors turned negative – from +2.5 to -6.4. A negative figure means pessimism. This pessimism is expected to weaken this time, with a rise to -3.4 points.
  2. German Factory Orders: Published on Monday at 10:00 GMT. Europe’s largest economy enjoyed a huge leap in factory orders in the last release. A small correction is expected this time – 0.1%. Note that the figure relates to April, and that the report for May will probably be worse.
  3. German Industrial Production: Published on Tuesday at 10:00 GMT. Complementing the factory orders figure, industrial production in Germany also made a significant jump last time – 4%, but is expected to continue rising this time as well, by 0.7%. The result of the factory orders will probably indicate the direction of this figure as well.
  4. German Final CPI: Published on Thursday at 6:00 GMT. It seemed that prices were picking up in Europe, led by its largest economy. But last month already saw them cooling down, with a drop of 0.1%. This release will probably confirm another calm month, with a rise of only 0.1%, as initially reported.
  5. French Industrial Production: Published on Thursday at 6:45 GMT. Europe’s second largest economy also enjoyed nice growth in its industrial production last month – a rise of 1%. Growth is expected to accelerate this month – 1.2%. While there are talks of a credit downgrade for France as well, its economy is rather strong.
  6. Rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:45 GMT. Jean-Claude Trichet isn’t expected to change the European Minimum Bid Rate. Yet again, he’s expected to leave it unchanged at 1%. A small rise in inflation put some pressure for a rate hike, but the rise in prices isn’t too strong. On the other hand, the dire situation in the Euro-zone prompts slashing the rates, but the ECB isn’t too keen on such a move. The focus will be on the ECB Press Conference, where hints about future policy and remarks about the current situation will be closely watched.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The “Lehman levels” at 1.2330 capped EUR/USD during the week, as it traded between this line and last week’s low of 1.2142. On Friday, this range trading was broken, as the pair collapsed below this support line and closed under 1.20, at 1.1968.

Lower support lines were added on last week’s outlook. The current range is between 1.20, which is a round number eyed by many, and 1.1820, which was a support line back in 2006.

Looking down, the next line of support is at 1.17. This is a symbolic number – this is the level that the Euro launched at, in 1999, as an interbank currency, before there were euro coins and bills. Below, 1.1630 – this was the bottom in November 2005, and now provides strong support.

A drop below this line sends the Euro back to levels last seen in 2003. Minor support is found at 1.1560, followed by stronger support at 1.1370.  Even lower, 1.11 is the next support line, serving as both a support and resistance line back at the beginning of 2003, 7 years ago.

Looking up above 1.20, the next line of resistance is at 1.2142, the former resistance line. This is followed by 1.2330 mentioned earlier.

Higher, 1.2460 is a strong line of resistance, capping the pair a few weeks ago. The next line is at 1.2670, which was a swing high. There are many more resistance line above, but they’re quite far at the moment.

I remain bearish on EUR/USD.

Yes, the Euro already lost a lot of ground, and some may say it’s oversold. But these falls are backed by an unstoppable flood of bad news. In the past week, it was Hungary, which compared itself to Greece. More debt  black holes will probably be discovered, pushing the Euro lower.

This pair receives lots of great reviews on the web. Here are my picks:

  • James Chen reacts to the recent breakdown of the Euro, and marks the next levels.
  • Kathy Lien diagnoses the Non-Farm Payrolls and provides an outlook for the Euro.
  • Casey Stubbs is looking for a possible bounce in EUR/USD.
  • Joseph Trevisani analyzes the Hungarian blues.
  • TheGeekKnow reviews the week and looks forward.

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