EUR/USD Outlook – March 1-5 2010

EUR/USD finally had a positive week and gained some ground. It’s now facing a very busy week, with the rate decision being the climax. Here’s the outlook for the European events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

Even though this week is crowded with economic indicators, the news about possible resolutions to the Greek crisis and their failures will continue to move the Euro. OK, Let’s start the review:

1. German Import Prices: Published on Monday at 7:00 GMT. As German prices are “back to normal”, not moving, import prices are expected to rise – by 0.8% this time, more than last month’s 0.5% rise. This will be a prelude for more inflation figures on the road ahead.
2. Final Manufacturing PMI: Published on Monday at 9:00 GMT. Purchasing managers were optimistic according to the initial release, moving this index up to 54.1, a relatively high number. This is expected to be confirmed now.
3. Unemployment Rate: Published on Monday at 10:00 GMT. Europe suffers from a double digit unemployment rate, exactly 10%, for already two months. The weight is expected to become heavier, with the figure rising to 10.1%. Spain has about 20% unemployment, with almost 50% of young people “employment challenged”. Without a change in employment, the Euro is stuck.
4. CPI Flash Estimate: Published on Tuesday at 10:00 GMT. Also prices are weighing on the Euro. Although they are off the bottom, an annual inflation rate of 1% is too little, especially for a rate hike. This level is expected to continue in the upcoming initial release.
5. PPI: Published on Tuesday at 1000 GMT and overshadowed by the CPI release. Similar to consumer prices, also producer prices are low, but an acceleration is predicted this time, from 0.1% to 0.7%.
6. German Retail Sales: Published on Wednesday at 7:00 GMT. The continent’s largest economy sees many mood changes in the consumer’s spending appetite. Last month was positive, with a rise of 0.9%, so this month might see a small dip.
7. Final Services PMI: Published on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT. The services sector isn’t doing as well as the manufacturing one. It dipped from 52.5 to 52 according to the first release. Although it dropped, it’s still above 50. This will probably be confirmed in the final release.
8. Retail Sales: Published on Wednesday at 10:00 GMT. All-European retail sales are released after the major data from Germany and France is already out, but it still has an impact on trading and has a tendency to fall short of expectations. Last month saw a small rise of 0.1%, but a drop is predicted this time – 0.3%.
9. Revised GDP: Published on Thursday at 10:00 GMT. According to the first flash release, the continent slowed down in Q4, growing by only 0.1% after growing by 0.4% in Q3. Germany fell to 0% growth. This figure will probably be repeated in the second release. There are doubts about growth in the next quarters.
10. Rate decision: Published on Thursday at 12:45 GMT. Jean-Claude Trichet is expected to leave the European Minimum Bid Rate at 1%, continuing the ritual from previous months. Spain and especially Greece will continue to be a burden on the Euro zone, and this will probably be the focus of the press conference, held 45 minutes after the announcement. Trichet might also hint about future policy, but it will probably remain unchanged.
11. German Factory Orders: Published on Friday at 11:00 GMT. The German economy is stagnant, and the industry is squeezing as well. A big drop of 2.3% was seen last month in factory orders. A correction is predicted this time, with a rise of 1.6%. This comes just before the American Non-Farm Payrolls, and could shape the Euro’s reaction to the NFP.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD traded in a range in the past week, moving between 1.3450 and 1.3690, eventually higher in this range, at 1.3628.

Initial resistance appears at 1.3690, which was tested twice in the past week. This is a minor resistance line. Above, 1.3850 continues to be a strong barrier that the Euro will have a hard time to break. The lines have marginally changed from last week’s outlook.

Even higher, 1.40 and 1.42 are the next lines of resistance, but only a major event will send EUR/USD to those levels.

Looking down, 1.3530 continues to supply minor support. The more important line appears at 1.3423, a line that supported the Euro way back in the past and twice in recent weeks.

If EUR/USD breaks 1.3423, the next line of support appears only at 1.3080, the area from which it began the long term rally of 2009.

I’m bearish on EUR/USD.

European troubles are far from being resolved, and also the big countries can’t pull the zone on their own – even the German economy stopped growing.

This pair receives many excellent reviews on the web. Here are my favorites:

• Casey Stubbs reviews the week using his 4 hour charts.
• The Geek Knows brings his own review and looks forward.

I’ll add more later on.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the  forex weekly outlook.
• For GBP/USD, look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the  AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.

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