EUR/USD Outlook – March 22-26

The Euro had a bad week, mostly due to another bad development in the Greek crisis. The upcoming week consists of a major German survey among other events. Here’s an outlook for 9 moving events in the Euro zone, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD graph with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

I had big doubts in the rise of the Euro and claimed it’s probably a rise before the plunge. Indeed, Thursday and Friday’s sessions sent EUR/USD 200 pips down. Let’s start the review. The technical analysis will follow:

1. Jean-Claude Trichet talks: Starts speaking on Monday at 15:30 GMT. The president of the ECB can easily move the Euro in his speech in Brussels. Hopes or worries – anything can move the currency, especially as no economic indicators are published on this day.
2. Belgium NBB Business Climate: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. This wide survey of 6,000 businesses tends to move the Euro, despite coming from a small country. Last month saw a disappointment as the index remained unchanged at -7 points. A negative number means worsening economic conditions. A rise to -4.1 is predicted this time, still in the negative zone.
3. French Flash PMI: Published on Wednesday at 8:00 GMT. France is the first country to publish the initial releases of purchasing managers’ indices. Manufacturing PMI is predicted to edge up from 54.9 to 55 points and services PMI from 54.6 to 54.9 points.
4. German Flash PMI: Published on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT. 30 minutes after France, the continent’s largest economy publishes its figures. Here, there’s a significant difference between the strong manufacturing sector where PMI is expected to remain high, around 57.2 and the services sector, which is expected to rise remain at around 52 points.
5. Flash PMI: Published on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT. The last release is for the whole continent. Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 54.2 points and services PMI to edge up from 51.8 to 52 points. Note that all the figures are above 50 – indicating economic expansion.
6. German Ifo Business Climate: Published on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT. Contrary to other European surveys and indicators, this one stable and continues to improve steadily. If it indeed rises from 95.2 to 95.8 points, it will have a positive impact on the Euro. It’s a major market mover.
7. Industrial New Orders: Published on Wednesday at 10:00 GMT. The total value of purchase orders has risen nicely in the past two months. After rising by 0.8% last month, a stronger rise of 2.1% is expected this time, supporting the Euro.
8. GfK German Consumer Climate: Published on Thursday at 7:00 GMT. This survey of 2,000 consumers fell from the peak score of 4.3 points and is recently stable at 3.2 points. It’s predicted to edge down to 3.1 points in the upcoming release.
9. French Consumer Spending: Published on Thursday at 7:45 GMT. The continent’s second largest economy has seen strong volatility in its consumers behavior. After a rise of 2.1% in spending, it fell by 2.7% last month. A modest rise of 0.3% is predicted this time.
10. M3 Money Supply: Published on Thursday at 9:00 GMT. The amount of money in circulation usually rises, but the current stagnation and current crisis brought it to a standstill and even a drop during two months – November and December. Last month’s 0.1% rise will probably be followed by a drop of 0.1% this time.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD had a good start to the week, rising above the 1.3780 resistance line and getting close to the important 1.3850 line. But this was only a rise before the plunge – after a second attempt to break higher failed, EUR/USD fell sharply and closed at 1.3530.

Most lines haven’t changed since last week’s outlook. EUR/USD is now standing on the minor line of 1.3530. Looking up, there are several additional minor lines to watch – 1.3680 provided some support during the recent fall. 1.3780 worked as a resistance line before the attempt to break higher.

The major resistance line is 1.3850 – the failure to breach this line puts downside pressure on the Euro. If this line is broken, the next line of resistance is at 1.40, followed by 1.42.

Looking down, 1.3423 continues to provide strong support. This line was tested in May 2009 and three times during the end of February and the beginning of March.

A break of 1.3423 will send the Euro tumbling down, with the next significant line of support being only at 1.3080.

I am bearish on EUR/USD

Apart from the Greek crisis, Germany’s stagnant economy and high unemployment continue to weigh on the Euro. The sharp falls might be followed by additional ones.

This pair receives many interesting coverages on the web. Here are my favorites:

• Casey Stubbs discusses the fall of the Euro after the failed attempt to break higher, using his 4 hour charts.
• James Chen sees bearishness continue after the wedge breakdown.
• The Geek Knows summarizes the week and looks forward.
• Dan Cook, on TheLFB, marks three out of three for the US dollar.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the  forex weekly outlook.
• For the British Pound, look into the  GBP/USD forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the  AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.

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