Another terrible week sent the Euro to critical levels. The Euro will now move by two major surveys and other indicators as well, as the debt crisis will continue accompanying us. Here’s an outlook for the European events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD, looking down.
EUR/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
The French president’s threat to take his country out of the Euro-zone came only a few days after there was great hope about the huge 750 billion euro aid plan. Note that not only the Euro is affected by the contagious debt-laden countries. OK, let’s start:
- French Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Tuesday at 6:45 GMT. This is a quarterly release, hence its importance. The number of employed people is on the fall in France since Q1 of 2008. Europe’s second largest economy is rather stable, and could see a rise jobs this time – 0.1%.
- ZEW Economic Sentiment: Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. This major survey finally recovered last month – after 6 months of drops that hurt the Euro. The rise to 53 points helped stabilize the Euro. Given the deteriorating debt troubles across the continent, this survey of 350 investors will probably drop this time. Also note the all-European sentiment. It also recovered to 46 points, and could drop as well. The German figure is considered more accurate.
- CPI: Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. European prices have risen last month, and reached an annual rate of 2.4%. This still OK, and doesn’t poise a threat. Dealing with inflation and unemployment at the same time is a big problem. Core CPI rose by 1%. A rise above 2% will be a big surprise, but this isn’t likely.
- Jean-Claude Trichet talks: Starts speaking on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT. During this huge financial crisis, Trichet’s words are very important. It’s role as a stabilizer is crucial. In his speech in Frankfurt, Trichet will definitely shake the Euro.
- German PPI: Published on Thursday at 6:00 GMT. Producer prices in Germany surprised with a rise of 0.7%, stronger than expected. As we learned from the past, producer prices jump and then stall, so only a few consecutive months of rises could be significant for the Euro.
- Consumer Confidence: Published on Thursday at 14:00 GMT. This survey, made by Eurostat has shown less pessimism – the figure reached -15, negative but improving. The 2,300 consumers that are surveyed for this indicator are likely to produce the same score this time.
- Flash PMI: Published on Friday between 7:00 to 8:00 GMT. The initial purchasing managers’ indices for the manufacturing and services sectors are released by France, then Germany and then for the entire continent. These crowded releases usually cause choppy trading. All the scores are above 50, meaning economic expansion, and they’re all predicted to edge up.
- German Ifo Business Climate: Published on Friday at 8:00 GMT. This major European survey climbed steadily in the past year. Also last month, a positive surprise was recorded when score passed the 100 point mark. Another small rise can be expected this time, supporting the Euro.
- Current Account: Published on Friday at 9:00 GMT. The total value of all goods (trade balance), income flows, services and money has turned negative in the past two months. This deficit will probably continue for another month, putting yet another weight on the Euro.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The Euro began the week with a huge and positive weekend gap – testing the 1.3114 resistance line. This was short-lived – the pair deteriorated gradually and then collapsed to close at 1.2356.
Note that some lines where modified since last week’s outlook. Now, the pair is very close to the 2009 low of 1.2331, and ranges between this line and 1.24, which is a minor resistance line.
Looking up, a more important resistance line is 1.2520, which provided temporary support for the pair in the past week, and also way back in the past.
Higher, 1.2880 is now only a minor resistance line, with 1.3114 being a significant stronghold – it worked perfectly in the past week and also in the one before it.
Looking down, if EUR/USD breaks below 1.2331, the next line are 1.22, 1.2060 and 1.1840. The low levels were last seen in 2006. Yes, four years ago…
I remain bearish on EUR/USD.
Exactly as I wrote last week, the Euro could recover at the beginning of the week, but the general direction is down -the debt problems are just too heavy.
This pair receives great reviews on the web. Here are my favorites:
- Andrei brings his technical levels for the next week, and send a hold signal for the Euro.
- James Chen sees more bearishness ahead, in addition to the big drops we’ve already seen.
- Casey Stubbs follows the Euro closely, and has excellent analysis for EUR/USD and other Euro pairs.
- The Geek Knows reviews the week and looks forward.
Further reading on Forex Crunch:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
- For the British Pound, look into the GBP/USD forecast.
- For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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