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Euro/dollar had a very exciting week, rocking on news from the distant sides of the continent. The upcoming week consists of no less than 10 events that will rock the pair. Here’s an outlook for these events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

Spain is in the limelight again. Protests mount across the nation, and there are two new discoveries of hidden debt. After the regional elections on Sunday, the picture will be clearer. On the other side of the continent, Greece is struggling with another downgrade and an understanding that the country is going to default, an understanding reaching Norway and France as well. In addition, Italy got a credit warning over the weekend.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:EUR USD chart May 23 27

  1. Flash PMI: Monday, begins at 7:00 in France, continues in Germany at 7:30 and finishes for the whole Euro-zone at 8:00. These releases provide a very busy start to the week. All the indices are above 50 points, and are expected to remain above these levels. Of special notice are the French Services PMI, which is at a sky high level of 62.9 points, and the German manufacturing PMI, only slightly lower at 62. The figures for the whole Euro zone are under 60, and will likely slide.
  2. German Final GDP: Tuesday, 7:00. According to the first release, Germany continues to lead the Euro-zone, with an impressing 1.5% growth in Q1. This will likely be confirmed now. Note that the other countries are lagging behind, exposing the widening gap in Europe.
  3. German Ifo Business Climate: Tuesday, 8:00. This highly regarded and wide survey of thousands of businesses has usually exceeded expectations and pushed the euro forward. Last time it dipped to 110.4 points. It’s now expected to slide once again to 110.1 points.
  4. Industrial New Orders: Tuesday, 9:00. After the volume of purchase orders dropped disappointed with a small rise of 0.9% last month, it’s now expected to fall by 1.1%. This could heavily weigh on the pound.
  5. NBB Business Climate: Tuesday, 13:00. While coming from a small country, this wide survey does tend to have a significant impact on the common currency.  After a few good months, this the NBB disappointed last month with a big drop from 6.2 to 2.8 points. The 6000 strong survey is likely to slide down once again.
  6. GfK Consumer Climate: Wednesday, 6:00. Also this survey disappointed with a drop last month, but here the fall was marginal.A similar score to last month’s 5.7 points is expected in this consumer survey.
  7. German Import Prices: Wednesday, 6:00. Import prices in Europe’s largest country will supply another hint towards the CPI. After PPI unexpectedly jumped last week, also this figure is expected to rise, probably by around 0.7%.
  8. Jean-Claude Trichet talks: Thursday, 9:20. The president of the ECB always shakes the euro when he speaks. He is likely to do so again in his speech at a conference in Berlin. Any fresh concern about inflation will be euro bullish.
  9. German CPI: Friday. The figures will be released gradually by the various German states. Expectations are low, for unchanged prices. Given the previous clues, CPI is expected to rise, despite the drop in commodity prices during the month.
  10. M3 Money Supply: Friday, 8:00. The last inflation indicator for the week is expected to show that the money in circulation is on the rise, with a rise of 2.5%.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Euro/Dollar managed to climb higher at the beginning of the week, rising above the critical 1.4160 line (discussed last week). It then continued higher and temporarily broke the 1.4282 line, peaking at 1.4342. But the end of the week was bad, and the pair eventually closed just at 1.4160 – a pivotal line for next week.

Technical levels, from top to bottom:

We start from a distant line – 1.4775 was the support line of the tight range trading. 1.47 is a rather minor line, that only temporarily capped the pair on its way up.

1.4650 was a peak on the way up, and then switched to significant support. It is a rather far as well 1.4580 was a line of resistance in the short stabilization period in the past week, and also in mid-April, and is a strong line of resistance now.

1.4520 was the bottom border of that range and an even stronger line, as it already worked as tough resistance a few weeks ago. Minor resistance is at 1.4450, which was an important line in the past, and had different roles beforehand.

1.4375 provided support a few weeks ago, and held the pair for a short period of time before the final fall. It returns to having a major role, after capping a rally just now. The peak of November 2010 at 1.4282 is weaker than before, but is still an important line of resistance.

1.4160 was a swing high in the past, and also a swing low a few weeks ago, before the big surge to higher levels. It was shattered in the past weeks and serves as a pivotal line now. Just above the round number of 1.40, we find very important support at 1.4030 – this is a very distinctive line, as seen in the graph, and is now immediate support.

Lower, 1.3950 was a pivotal line when the pair traded in lower ranges and is minor support now. More important support is at 1.3860, which worked in both directions earlier this year.

1.3750 is the next important line, serving as resistance back in January, and as an important line of support in February.

1.3570 worked as support at the beginning of the year, and will have the same role if the Euro falls that far. The last important line is 1.3440, that is very distinctive. It was a clear border between ranges, more than once in recent years. A break below will be a very bearish sign.

I remain bearish on EUR/USD.

There are too many worrying signs regarding the debt crisis, and new ones join every day, including Italy on the weekend. The events in Spain will be in the limelight at the beginning of the week. It’s not that the situation in the US is far better, but its current stability in contrast to Europe provides reasons for EUR/USD to continue lower.

The pair receives great reviews. Here are my recommendations:

  • FX Tech Strategy sees EUR/USD under bear pressure, struggling to recover.
  • Simon Smith discusses the growing futility of the ECB policy.
  • Kathy Lien sees less rate hikes in Europe during 2011 according to market rates.
  • Andriy Moraru provides weekly support and resistance lines for major pairs, including EUR/USD.
  • TheGeekKnows writes a review of the past week looks forward.

Further reading: