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Another intense week ended with a significant recovery for the common currency. Will the recovery continue? Or was it just a temporary correction? Here’s an outlook for the events that will rock the Euro, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

Euro dollar forecast

The contagious debt problems sent the pair to four year lows, but it managed to end the week higher after the German parliament approved the huge bailout package. This week might be more stable… OK, let’s start:

  1. Industrial New Orders: Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. European manufacturers sent mixed signals in recent months. After last month’s nice rise in orders, 1.5%, expectations are for another rise, of 2.3% this time. Learning from the past, a drop won’t be a big surprise.
  2. German  GfK Consumer Climate: Published on Wednesday at 6:00 GMT. 2,000 German consumers are surveyed for this important indicator. After many months of stability, this indicator finally rose to 3.8 points, showing that consumers feel better about the economic situation. A small drop to 3.7 points is predicted this time. A bigger drop will probably be seen next time – representing the impact of the financial crisis.
  3. French Consumer Spending: Published on Wednesday at 6:45 GMT. Also in Europe’s second largest economy, consumers showed growing confidence as their spending rose by 1.2% last time. This is expected to change now, with a drop of 0.5%.
  4. NBB Business Climate: Published on Wednesday at 13:00 GMT. This wide survey of 6,000 businesses is highly regarded, despite coming from a small country – Belgium. The score improved to from -3.6 to -2.4 and is expected to edge up to -2.1. The improving negative score means that businesses are now less pessimistic. Also here, a negative change will probably seen next time.
  5. German CPI: Published on Thursday. The different German states release their consumer price index throughout the day, building up the preliminary release. Inflation seemed to pick up two months ago, as prices rose by 0.5%, but last month’s drop of 0.1% showed that no big change is coming. A small rise of 0.1% is expected this time.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro began the week with a quick deterioration below the “Lehman levels”, 1.2330 and even broke another technical level, 1.22, before making an impressing comeback and closing above 1.2520, at 1.2563.

The current range for the pair is between 1.2520, which held the Euro temporarily before a bigger collapse, and 1.2672, a new line (didn’t appear in last week’s outlook), that was the peak in the past week.

Looking higher, 1.2880 is the next line of resistance, being a significant line of support about one year ago. The next important line of resistance is 1.3114, which held the pair before it fell below 1.30.

Further resistance is found at 1.3267, which also had an important role as a support line. 1.3440 is the next hurdle, but it’s quite far.

Looking down, immediate support can still be found at the 2008 low of 1.2330. This is followed by the round number of 1.22, which worked as a support line back in 2006, and the fresh year-to-date low of 1.2144.

Even lower, the round number of 1.20 provides more support. Stronger support is found at 1.1820, which was a strong support line, and 1.1630, the lowest level since 2003. Low levels indeed.

I remain bearish on EUR/USD.

Despite the fresh optimism from the German approval, the markets are still far from stabilization. The Euro can experience more rounds of downfalls before settling down. Contagious diseases take time to cure.

This pair receives many great reviews on the web. Here are my favorites:

  • Casey Stubbs provides a fresh and excellent strategy for EUR/USD using his 4 hour charts.
  • Mohammed Isah analyzes the graphs and focuses on the recent rise.
  • Kathy Lien explains why the Euro could hit 1.20. This was recorded before Friday’s recovery.
  • James Chen sees a bullish correction in the strong downtrend.
  • The Geek Knows reviews the past week and looks forward.

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