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The Euro enjoyed the dollar’s weakness and will now face  many important surveys and PMI figures among other indicators. Here’s an outlook for European events and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

eur usd forecast September 20-24

The speculation from Goldman Sachs that the Federal Reserve will print more dollars helped the Euro make gains, despite mediocre economic indicators. Will this continue?

  1. Jean-Claude Trichet talks: Starts speaking on Sunday, 17:00 (before markets open). The president of the European Central Bank often releases statements that rock the markets, as he comments about the overall situation. In his speech in Tallinn, he might set the opening tone for the week.
  2. Industrial New Orders: Wednesday, 9:00. The Euro-zone enjoyed 5 months of growth in the value of orders made with manufacturers. The past two months were especially strong: 4.1% and 2.5% growth rates, exceeding expectations. So this time, orders are expected to fall by 1.2%..
  3. NBB Business Climate: Wednesday, 13:00. This wide survey of 6000 businesses has improved in recent months, but remained negative, meaning that conditions are expected to be worse. From -5.1 points, this Belgian survey will probably edge up, but still remain in negative territory, -4.9.
  4. Consumer Confidence: Wednesday, 14:00. This survey relates to consumers and is also in negative territory. This  official survey by the European authorities is expected to edge up edge up from -12.
  5. Flash PMI: Thursday. France begins at 7:00, Germany continues at 7:30 and the all-European figures are released at 8:00. Purchasing managers’ indices for the manufacturing and services sectors are all positive – with a score above 50 points – meaning economic expansion, but there are differences. The French services sector is the strongest, with a score of above 60 points, while the all-European manufacturing PMI is the weakest. All these indicators are expected to remain almost unchanged now, making very marginal drops. If any index slides under 50, the Euro will suffer, but there’s a bigger chance of seeing choppy trading without any significant trend change.
  6. German Ifo Business Climate: Friday, 8:00. This is the most important survey of the week. 7,000 businesses are surveyed for this indicator, that tends to be much more optimistic than the negative ZEW survey. After climbing to 106.7 points, the IFO survey will probably tick up once again, boosting the Euro towards the end of the week.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro traded steeply higher during most of the week, breaking many lines on the way. Friday’s break of the important 1.3110 resistance line (mentioned in last week’s outlook) was a false break, and the pair closed just under 1.3050.

EUR/USD is around 1.3050, which which seems like a pivotal line. Looking up, 1.3110 remains a strong resistance line, after working as such in July, and serving as support a few months ago.

Higher, 1.3160, the past week’s high, is a minor resistance line. Stronger resistance appears at 1.3267, which supported the pair back in April.

Higher, August’s peak of 1.3334 is the next line of resistance, followed by 1.3430 which was a support line at the beginning of the year.

Looking down, there are many minor support lines – 1.2960 is the first one, after working in the past week. Lower, 1.2920 is already a stronger line, working as resistance several times in August and September.

The next line of support worked as support in the past week – 1.2830. Lower, 1.2770 was the top border of range trading recently. 1.2665 was the other side of that range trading, and now works as minor support.

Lower, 1.2610 is a very strong support line, holding the pair recently. There are many more lines below, but they’re too far now.

I remain bearish on EUR/USD.

While the Euro enjoyed the dollar’s weakness, its own troubles never went away. We got a second reminder this week – Irish debt issues which directly affect the stronger countries as well.

Here are some additional excellent reviews on this pair:

  • Casey Stubbs reports that the Euro is tesing a trend line.
  • James Chen’s strength / weakness meter puts the Euro at the top of the list this time.
  • Andriy posts technical levels for the EUR/USD and other pairs on a weekly basis.
  • Jamie Coleman reports that also the Spanish regions of Andalusia and Catalonia suffer from credit downgrades.
  • Mohammed Isah marks the next levels for EUR/USD.
  • TheGeekKnows writes a review of the past week looks forward.

Further reading:

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