EUR/USD Outlook – September 5-9 2011

Euro/dollar couldn’t break out of range and it ended the week 300 pips lower. Will it climb back within range or break lower? The upcoming week is very busy and consists of the rate decision among other events. Here is an outlook for these events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

The now quarterly Greek debt crisis is with us again: Greece didn’t meet its obligations and the EU / IMF delegation left the country, with a senior IMF economist saying that a hard default is imminent. Also in the US, things look quite gloomy with zero jobs gained in August. This September isn’t going to be nice, but action is guaranteed.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. Final Services PMI:Monday, 8:00. Revisions aren’t too common after the initial release. But after we’ve seen a serious downgrade in the manufacturing PMI, this event is of high importance. The initial read was 51.5 points, still in the growth zone.
2. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 8:30. After a year in positive territory, this indicator dropped to -13.5 points. The negative number reflects pessimism among the 2800 analysts and investors surveyed here. A similar number is expected now.
3. Retail Sales: Monday, 9:00. This one is expected to be positive. After Germany has shown a nice rise in the volume of sales, the number for the whole region is expected to show growth for a second month in a row.
4. Revised GDP: Tuesday, 9:00. According to the initial flash release, the euro-zone grew by only 0.2% in Q2. After Germany’s slow growth of 0.1% was confirmed, this will likely be confirmed as well.
5. German Factory Orders: Tueday, 10:00. This part of the German economy is still doing very well. The last three months saw significant rises in factory orders, beating estimates. Last month’s 1.8% rise will likely be followed with a drop.
6. German Industrial Production: Wednesday, 10:00. Contrary to the previous and related indicator, industrial production disappointed with a drop of 1.1% last month. A small rise is expected this time.
7. German Trade Balance: Thursday, 6:00. While the euro zone has a deficit in its trade balance, Germany enjoys a wide surplus. This surplus has somewhat squeezed from a peak of 15.1 billion reported 4 months ago to 11.5 billion last month. A small rise is likely now.
8. Rate decision: Thursday, 11:45. Press conference at 12:30. No change is expected in the European Minimum Bid Rate, that currently stands at 1.50%. .It seems that Jean-Claude Trichet finally acknowledges the significant slowdown, but also the drop in inflation, especially core inflation. He mentioned that inflation expectations are “being studied”. He is expected to significantly lower his tone on inflation and say that the risks are balanced and uncertainty is high. The recent CPI Flash Estimate has show that the annual pace of inflation is at 2.5%. This is too high for signalling a rate cut, but not enough for tough talk. The euro will likely slide, although this is partially priced in.
9. French Industrial Production: Friday, 6:45. Europe’s second largest economy has seen a “see-saw” in industrial output. It dropped last month by 1.6%, and will likely tick up now.

* All times are GMT.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Euro/dollar had a good start to the week and extended slightly extended the gains. From there it was all downhill: it gradually lost support, with 1.4220 (mentioned last week) being the final support line to fall.

Technical levels, from top to bottom

1.4775 is a significant line in high ground, after being pivotal when the pair traded there. 1.47 follows as a minor line.

1.4650 was a peak in the past and is minor resistance. The 1.4550 line was a peak just now, and has proven to be of high importance. After the pair reached this line, it fell. 1.4520 is now minor resistance below. It capped the euro for another week in a row, and also had a similar role in the past.

1.4480 worked as a cap to the pair just now, and also way back in the past. The round number of 1.44 served as a pivotal line, and is quite weak now.

After being a double bottom, 1.4330 is the next minor line. It switches positions to resistance.  The peak of November 2010 at 1.4282 is is still with us as usual. This  line works better as resistance than as support, and after it was lost, the pair fell quickly.

EUR/USD had a tough time breaking below 1.4220, which served as support in the past and is immediate resistance now.  1.4160 returned to having an important role in supporting the pair, despite being breached.

Moving lower, the round number of 1.41 provides stronger support now, after preventing a collapse.  Just above the round number of 1.40, we find very important support at 1.4030 – it was successfully tested earlier in the summer.

Lower, 1.3950 was a pivotal line when the pair traded in lower ranges and proved that it is of high importance. After the comeback, this line was another clear support line.  The bottom of 1.3838 will be closely watched in another fall. This was also a line of support last year. Below, 1.3750 is significant support, if the pair falls to a five month low.

Narrowing channel

Downtrend resistance begins at the end end of June and is quite moderate. Uptrend support begins from the swing low in July and is more sharp. The narrowing channel has been broken twice: once to the upside, but this was short lived. The pair finally closed below uptrend support – this is a bearish sign.

I remain bearish on EUR/USD.

With a fragile banking system and a very fragile Greece, euro/dollar has more room for falls. A break below the long term range depends a lot on the words of Trichet. If he remains stubborn, more choppy range trading can continue. Note that Monday is a holiday in the US, but afterwards, the markets will be fully active.

If you are interested in an alternative way of trading, check out the  weekly binary options setups, including EUR/USD of course.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD to USD forecast.
• For the New Zealanddollar (kiwi), read the  NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar
• For the Swiss Franc, see the  USD/CHF forecast.