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EUR/USD  is trading slightly higher, enjoying a strong German figure towards the really big event: the decision by the ECB and the subsequent press conference by Mario Draghi. Will we see another cut? QE? Or only the same rhetoric? Also in the US, we have quite a few significant hints towards tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls.


Update:  Draghi announces sizable ABS – EUR/USD dips below 1.30

Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and sentiment moving the pair.

  • EUR/USD  traded steadily  around 1.3150
  • Current range: 1.31 to 1.3150.

Further levels in both directions:

EURUSD September 4 technical analysis fundamental outlook and sentiment

  • Below: 1.31 1.3050, 1.30 and 1.2940.
  • Above: 1.3150, 1.3175, 1.3220 and 1.3295.
  • 1.3150 switches to resistance after the downfall on Friday.
  • 1.3108  is the new low, but real support is at the round number of 1.31.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 6:00  German Factory Orders. Exp. 1.6%, actual 4.6%.  
  • 8:10 Euro-zone  Retail PMI.
  • 11:45 ECB rate decision. See the full preview:  4 options – lower forecasts but probably no action.
  • 12:15 US ADP Non-Farm Payrolls. Exp. 218K.
  • 12:30 ECB Press Conference.  
  • 12:30 US jobless claims. Exp. Exp. 298K.
  • 12:30 US trade balance. Exp. 42.5 billion.
  • 12:30 US Revised non-farm productivity. Exp. 2.5%.
  • 12:30 US revised unit labor costs. Exp. +0.6%.
  • 13:45 US Markit final services PMI. Exp. 58.5 points.
  • 14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 57.3  points.

*All times are GMT.

For more events and lines, see the  Euro to dollar  forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • What will the ECB do?: Since Draghi’s Jackson Hole speech, expectations are sky high for more monetary stimulus and the euro is lower. Some expect the central bank to cut rates even further, while others expect him to announce outright QE, although that might wait. There is also a  high probability of seeing lower forecasts. The reaction depends on not only on the action but on the message. See the preview:  4 options – lower forecasts but probably no action
  • Ceasefire or conflict?:  The breaking news about a  permanent ceasefire came out of Kiev and were followed by a denial from Moscow. While the presidents talked, nothing is really changing on the ground. Analysis:  5  Reasons to fade the Ukraine-Russia ceasefire. However, later on Russian president Vladimir Putin laid out a 7 point  peace plan, that  will be on the table in a meeting between him and Ukrainian president Poroshenko on Friday.
  • Big hints towards the NFP: While the US events are currently on the back-burner, the first hint was positive: the ISM manufacturing PMI came out better than expected.  Join the webinar for a preparation for the NFP and the ECB. Today we get the ADP, jobless claims and perhaps most importantly, the employment component of the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Stay tuned for a preview on how to trade the event with EUR/USD.

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