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EUR/USD  is treading  softly in Wednesday trading, showing little movement. The pair continues to trade in the high 1.34-range in Wednesday’s European session. In economic news, German Ifo  Consumer Climate  rose slightly and  matched the  forecast.  In the US, CB Consumer Confidence fell in August. Wednesday’s key releases out of the US are Core Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales.

Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.

EUR/USD Technical

  • In the  Asian  session, EUR/USD was steady,  touching a low of 1.3462  and consolidating at 1.3473. The pair is unchanged in the European  session.

Current range: 1.3450 to 1.3500.

Further levels in both directions:   EUR USD Daily Forecast Sep 25th

  • Below: 1.3450, 1.3415, 1.3325, 1.3240, 1.3175, 1.3050 and 1.3000.
  • Above: 1.3500, 1.3570, 1.3650, 1.3710, 1.3800, 1.3870 and 1.3940.
  • 1.3450  continues to  provide weak  support.  
  • On the upside, 1.3500 is under pressure. 1.357o is next.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 6:00  GfK German  Consumer Climate. Exp. 7.1 points, Actual  7.1 points.
  • 12:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Exp.  1.1%.
  • 12:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Exp.  0.0%.
  • 14:00 US New Home Sales. Exp.  422K.
  • 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Exp. -1.0M.

* All times are GMT.

For more events and lines, see the  Euro to dollar forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • German  business  confidence high, but misses expectations: German Ifo Business Climate has looked very strong in recent releases, and the current release seems to have been a victim of its own success. The key indicator improved slightly to 107.7 points, its highest level since March 2012. However, the markets  had  expected a higher  figure of 108.4 points.  Business  Climate has now improved  over five consecutive months, pointing  to stronger confidence in the German economy. This bodes well for  both the Eurozone and  the euro.
  • Euro Manufacturing PMIs down, but Services PMIs improve: Eurozone, German and French PMIs were released earlier in the week, and there was a strong consistency among the readings, as all the Manufacturing PMIs lost ground, while the Services PMIs improved. The good news from the mixed results was that all of the indexes posted readings above the 50-point level, with the exception of French Flash Manufacturing PMI. The 50-point line is a separator between contraction and expansion, so with the one exception, the services and manufacturing sectors continue to show expansion.
  • Merkel rolls to easy win: As widely expected, Chancellor Angela Merkel was re-elected to a third straight term in convincing style. Merkel’s conservative bloc  steamrolled to  victory  but  failed to win  a  super majority, which would have enabled it to form the government on its own.  This means that  Merkel will  have to reach out to  one of the opposition parties to form a coalition, which could lead to some political uncertainty. The most likely scenario is a coalition with the center-left SPD, but that party’s head, Ralf Stenger, is in no hurry and can afford to wait to be courted by Merkel. Merkel’s big win is good news for the euro, but if the coalition negotiations get bogged down, the euro could lose ground.
  • Markets eye key US releases:  US data looked strong last week, and the markets are hoping that the positive news continues on Wednesday, with  the release of Core Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales. The markets are expecting stronger figures from both key indicators, which could give the US dollar a badly-needed boost. The greenback remains under broad pressure, courtesy of the Fed’s non-taper decision last week.

Here is a post FOMC technical outlook for EUR/USD.