EUR/USD has posted modest losses in Tuesday trading, continuing the trend we saw throughout last week. The pair has lost around two cents in the past week, and has dropped below the 1.32 line in Tuesday’s European session. US markets are back in action on Tuesday after starting off the week with the Labor Day holiday. In economic releases, Spanish Unemployment Change was up sharply and missed the estimate. Today’s key event is US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.
EUR/USD Technical
- In the Asian session, EUR/USD lost ground late in the session, dropping to a low of 1.3164 and consolidating at 1.3167. The pair is unchanged in the European session.
Current range: 1.3100 to 1.3175.
Further levels in both directions: 
- Below: 1.31, 1.3050 and 1.30.
- Above: 1.3175, 1.3240, 1.33, 1.3350, 1.3415, 1.3450, 1.3520, 1.3590 and 1.37.
- 1.3175 is under strong pressure as the pair moves lower. 1.3240 is next.
- 1.3100 is providing weak support. 1.3050 follows.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 7:00 Spanish Unemployment Change. Exp. -5.2K, actual 0.0K.
- 9:00 Eurozone PPI. Exp. 0.2%, actual 0.3%.
- 13:00 US Final Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 53.9 points.
- 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 54.2 points.
- 14:00 US Construction Spending. Exp. 0.3%.
- 14:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Exp. 46.2 points.
- 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices. Exp. 51.6 points.
* All times are GMT.
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- Solid PMIs out of Eurozone: September started on a positive note as Eurozone PMIs looked good. Manufacturing PMIs from Italy, Spain and the Eurozone beat their estimates, and all three posted readings above the 50-point level, which indicates expansion. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI had a long run of releases below the 50 level, but has now stayed above the 50 line for two consecutive readings. Further solid data out of the Eurozone is essential for the euro to recover after sustaining sharp losses against the dollar last week.
- Markets steadier as Syrian tensions subsides: The markets were nervous last week in anticipation of an expected US military strike against Syria, after a chemical attack in the war-torn country killed hundreds of civilians. The euro dropped sharply, losing about 170 points on the week. However, the attempt by the US to secure a coalition ran into trouble, and President Obama said on the weekend that he will seek Congressional approval before taking any action against Syria. With Congress in recess until September 9th, a military strike could be delayed until mid-September or even later. As a result, the markets have settled down and EUR/USD has not shown a lot of movement so far this week.
- Spanish Unemployment Change Jumps: After posting a string of excellent releases, Spanish Unemployment Change soared to 0.0K in September, compared to the August reading of -64.9K. However, this figure is not all that surprising, if we take into account the summer tourist season, which resulted in much stronger employment numbers. The reading missed the estimate of -5.2 thousand. The week started off nicely as Spanish Manufacturing PMI pushed above the 50-point level for the first time in over two years, climbing to 51.1 points. We’ll see if Services PMI can keep up the pace and also produce a strong release later in the week.
- QE tapering in September?: The Federal Reserve has kept very quiet about when it might taper QE, and recent statements from Fed policymakers underscore divisions regarding the timing of such a dramatic move. What is clear is that stronger US numbers will increase the likelihood of the Fed acting sooner rather than later. This means that US releases, especially employment numbers, will be under the market microscope and traders should be prepared for QE tapering, which will likely boost the US dollar against other major currencies.
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