EUR/USD has posted gains on Tuesday, after starting the week with a whimper. The pair has crossed above the 1.39 line in the European session. Taking a look at fundamental releases, Spanish numbers were excellent, as Unemployment Change plummeted and Manufacturing PMI climbed to a ten-year high. Eurozone Retail Sales posted a gain in April and beat the estimate. In the US, Tuesday’s major event is Trade Balance.
Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.
EUR/USD Technical
- EUR/USD was flat in the Asian session, trading around 1.3880. The pair has strengthened in the European session and has pushed above the 1.39 line.
Current range: 1.3905 to 1.3964.
Further levels in both directions: 
- Below: 1.3905, 1.3865, 1.3830, 1.3785, 1.3740, 1.37, 1.3650 and 1.3560, 1.3515 and 1.3450
- Above: 1.3964, 1.40, 1.4055 and 1.4105
- 1.3964 is the next line of resistance. The key level of 1.40 is next.
- 1.3905 has switched to support role. 1.3865 is stronger.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 7:00 Spanish Unemployment Change. Exp. -49.1 thousand. Actual -111.6 thousand.
- 7:15 Spanish Services PMI. Exp. 54.3 points. Actual 56.5 points.
- 7:45 Italian Services PMI. Exp. 51.2 points. Actual 51.1 points.
- 8:00 Eurozone Final Services PMI. Exp. 53.1 points. Actual 53.1 points.
- 9:00 Eurozone Retail Sales. Exp. -0.2%. Actual +0.3%.
- All Day – ECOFIN Meetings.
- 12:30 US Trade Balance. Exp. -40.1B.
- 14:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Exp. 47.6 points.
- 21:30 US FOMC Member Jeremy Stein Speaks.
*All times are GMT
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- Spanish numbers impress: Spanish data often lags well behind the Eurozone leaders, but Spanish data looked superb on Tuesday. Unemployment Change dropped by 111.6 thousand, crushing the estimate of -49.1 thousand. We tend to see sharp drops in unemployment during the busy tourist season, but the April slide was clearly much sharper than the markets had anticipated. Spanish Services PMI continues to improve, and the reading of 56.5 marked its highest level since March 2007. The estimate stood at 54.3 points. Also on Tuesday, there was positive news from Eurozone Retail Sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending. The indicator posted a gain of 0.3%, beating the estimate of -0.2%.
- US economy: High hopes for Q2: The narrative of a weak US economy in Q1 due to the harsh winter (mentioned also by the Fed) versus a rebound in Q2 is strengthening: Q1 GDP was a shocking 0.1% and could be revised to contraction. On the other hand, Friday’s employment data bodes well for Q2, as Nonfarm Payrolls soared and the Unemployment Rate dropped significantly. As well, higher manufacturing and services PMIs and strong consumer confidence could signify improvement in Q2.
- QE taper train keeps chugging: As widely expected, the Federal Reserve trimmed its QE program by $10 billion on Wednesday. This marks the fourth cut since December, reducing the asset purchase scheme to $45 billion/month. The tapers are no longer creating headlines as they did just a few months ago, and the dollar didn’t get any lift against its major rivals. The Fed acknowledged the winter effects and left the fireworks for the June decision.
- Will ECB make a move?: Eurozone inflation indicators continue to struggle. PPI posted its third straight decline in April, coming in at -0.2%. Last week, German Preliminary CPI did no better, dipping to -0.2%. The ECB finds itself under pressure to take action but so far has balked. ECB head Mario Draghi has stated that negative deposit rates or even QE are on the table, but the markets have heard this often before and these remarks have not had much effect, as the euro remains at high levels against the US dollar. However, with EUR/USD fast approaching the 1.40 line, we are likely to hear tougher rhetoric from the ECB about the high value of the euro.
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