EUR/USD: Trading the US NFP Dec 2015

EUR/USD: Trading the US NFP Dec 2015

US Nonfarm Employment Change measures the change in the number of newly employed people in the US, excluding workers in the farming industry. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar. Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.

Published on  Friday at 13:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity.  The release of US Non-Farm  Employment Change  is highly anticipated by the markets, and an unexpected reading can affect the direction of EUR/USD.

Nonfarm Employment Change was outstanding in October, jumping to  271 thousand. This crushed the estimate of  181 thousand. The markets are expecting a sharp drop in November, with the forecast standing  at 201 thousand. Will the indicator repeat and beat the estimate?

Sentiment and Levels

Draghi has a tendency to  surprise the markets, and the  ECB is expected to announce  additional monetary easing later on Thursday. This could lead to a further drop towards parity.  Continuing  speculation that the  Fed will raise  rates later in the month continues to bolster the dollar.  So, the overall sentiment  remains  bearish on EUR/USD towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.0710, 1.0630, 1.0566, 1.0530, 1.0460 and 1.03.

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: 196K to 205K. In such a scenario, the EUR/USD is likely to rise within  range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
  2. Above expectations: 206K to 212K: An unexpected higher reading could send the pair  below one support  line.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 212K: The chances of such a scenario are low. Such an outcome could  push the pair lower and two or more  support lines could  fall as a result.
  4. Below expectations:  189K to 195K: A  weaker reading  than forecast could result in EUR/USD breaking above one resistance line.
  5. Well below expectations: Below 189K. In this scenario, the pair could break through two or more resistance lines.

For more about the euro, see the EUR/USD forecast.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.