US Nonfarm Employment Change measures the change in the number of newly employed people in the US, excluding workers in the farming industry. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar. Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.
Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT.
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Indicator Background
Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. The release of US Non-Farm Employment Change is highly anticipated by the markets, and an unexpected reading can have a substantial impact on the direction of EUR/USD.
Nonfarm Employment Change dropped sharply in August report to 151 thousand, well short of the estimate 180 thousand. The indicator is expected to rebound in September, with an estimate of 171 thousand. Will the indicator climb higher as expected?
Sentiment and Levels
Despite a weak Eurozone economy and banking troubles, EUR/USD has shown extreme stability. Monetary divergence favors the US dollar, but the euro continues to hold its own. So, the overall sentiment is neutral on EUR/USD towards this release.
Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.1375, 1.1335, 1.1230, 1.1190, 1.1125 and 1.1070
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: 168K to 174K: In such a scenario, the EUR/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
- Above expectations: 175K to 179K: An unexpected higher reading could push the pair below one support line.
- Well above expectations: Above 179K: Such an outcome could push the pair lower and two or more support lines could fall as a result.
- Below expectations: 163K to 167K: A weak reading could result in EUR/USD breaking above one resistance line.
- Well below expectations: Below 163K: A very soft reading could result in the pair breaking above two or more resistance lines.
For more about the euro, see the EUR/USD forecast.
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