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6 Reasons Why EUR/USD Is Vulnerable

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By Published: Last Modified: Opinions

Despite the weak US jobs report, EUR/USD has lost some of its charm. Uptrend support is at risk, the chance for another round of QE is not that certain anymore, the failure to break higher and more, all make it vulnerable. Here goes:

  1. Uptrend support is at risk – EUR/USD fell towards this strong line that accompanied it for over a month. Volatility around the Non-Farm Payrolls could sent it below this line.
  2. QE2 at risk: FOMC member Bullard said that deciding on new quantitative easing steps (QE2) isn’t a done deal. This could wait for the next meeting as well.
  3. German Trade Balance came out worse than expected – the surplus was only 11.7 billion instead of 12.3 that was expected.
  4. The failure to break above the all-important psychological level of 1.40 shows that this is finally a tough barrier that the Euro finds hard to handle.
  5. Exhaustion: After running 10% higher in one month, with very brief stops, EUR/USD could take a break. So can other currency pairs that partied on the US dollar.
  6. Strong Euro has a price: weakening the European economies – the rise comes with a price – Europe is less competitive. An ECB member, Nowotny, already warns that this rise is bad for the recovery.

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About Author

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

2 Comments

  1. EuroForex on

    Friday, October 8, 2010, 2:38 PM
    The data worse than expected came from the labor market to weaken the stars and stripes greenback
    The courses of the yuan and the dollar does not correspond to their actual values
    Target reached upward for the exchange rate between euro and dollar, with a maximum in the European session at 1.4028 yesterday, exceeded the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the descent from maximum to minimum at 1.5141 to 1, 1876.
    is it difficult to understand what’s going on ?
    to me no.