According to a report in the Belgian television, exit polls show Macron with 24% and Le Pen with 22% making it to the second round. Fillon is third with 20.5% and Melenchon with 18%. This is similar to the last opinion polls published on Friday.
Update: Official French exit polls: Macron wins first round 23.7%, Le Pen 21.7% – EUR/USD should rise
Update: Belgian paper L’Eco states that Emmanuel Macron is the clear leader with 24-25% while there is a battle between Le Pen and Melenchon for second place around 20%. Fillon is fourth with 18% according to this report.
The report does not detail the number of people polled in these exit polls. Normally, exit polls canvass voters just as they leave polling booths, asking them to recast the vote that they just cast in the real vote. The scale is usually much wider than opinion polls.
Voting has ended in some rural areas and counting has started there. In the large cities, voting continues until 20:00 local time, 18:00 GMT.
If this result is confirmed, it is a favorable outcome: Macron is set to beat Le Pen by a wide margin in the second round on May 7th and the euro could rise immediately. Here are our 4 scenarios for the French elections. EUR/USD has advanced in the last minutes of trading on Friday.
Some notes of caution: this is not an official exit poll by French television, voting is still going on and the actual vote can differ from the exit polls.
French law forbids publishing any polling data before polls are closed at 20:00 local time, 18:00 GMT. Turnout has been somewhat lower than in 2012, with 69.4% at 17:00 local time, but still quite high.
A high turnout is supposed to help Macron and weaken Fillon. However, in a very close election, everything is possible.
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