First Greek Exit Polls: Tied Race Could Lead to SYRIZA

Voting has ended in Greece and official exit poll results have been made public. this first round of exit polls shows a technical tie between pro-bailout New Democracy and anti-bailout SYRIZA.

Update: Final results – Pro bailout camp wins.  Read the results, coalition prospects, analysis, and market reaction  (which was short lived).

Update:  Final exit polls point to a  victory for New Democracy, but it’s still too close to call.

A second round of exit polls is due at 17:00 GMT, and might include also the younger voters who rushed to vote in the last minute. These could tip the score towards SYRIZA. One thing is certain: it is going to be a long night in Greece and a long night for markets.

Here are some numbers, from  Kathimerini English Edition

First exit poll by Mega TV: ND 27.5-30.5, SYRIZA 27-30, PASOK 10-12, Ind Gr 6-7.5, Golden Dawn 6-7.5, Dem Left 5.5-6.5, KKE 5-6

First exit poll by Star Channel: ND 27-30, SYRIZA 26-29, PASOK 10-12, Ind Greeks 6-8, Golden Dawn 6-8, Dem Left 6-7, KKE 5-6

And from an opinion poll:

SYRIZA 28, ND 27.5, PASOK 13, Dem Left 7.5, Ind Greeks 7.5, GD 5.5, KKE 5.5 Skai TV opinion poll, not exit poll

As the numbers show, the results are too close to call. The different between the leading parties is very narrow. These exit polls are based on 80% of data. The missing 20% could make a difference.

These results are quite similar to the early unofficial exit polls reported earlier.

It’s important to note that these are only exit polls – estimates of the results and the official results. Significant official results are expected to be seen around 18:30 GMT, before markets open.  If the race will be close, it will be a long night

In case SYRIZA wins, the markets are expected to fall, but  coordinated central bank action  could follow and totally change the picture in favor of stocks and the euro.

See how to trade the Greek elections.

A long night in Athens means that there will be no clarity when currency markets open. This uncertainty could weigh on the euro at first. It might change when things become clearer.