Greek Elections: Final Exit Polls Point to Marginal Lead

The second round of exit polls in the Greek elections point to marginal lead for the pro-bailout New Democracy party. ND has  28.6-30% and SYRIZA has  27.5-28.4%. This is still too close to call.

Update: Final results – Pro bailout camp wins.  Read the results, coalition prospects, analysis, and market reaction  (which was short lived).

These exit polls are already based on 100% of data rather than 80% in the initial exit polls, which were published just as the vote ended. First real results also point to a victory for pro-bailout parties, but these are mostly rural votes.

Exit polls and seats

These numbers translate to a majority of 159 out of 300 seats for pro-bailout parties New Democracy and PASOK. They could form a coalition thanks to the 50 seat bonus that is granted for the winner – New Democracy in this case.

This is the parliament breakdown according to these polls:  ND 127 seats, Syriza 72, Pasok 32, Independent Greeks 21, Golden Dawn 19, Democratic Left 16, Communist Party 13.

Update: another exit polls shows closer results:  Skai TV gives first seat projections from their exit polls: Syriza 28% 124 seats, ND, 27.5% 73 seats, Pasok 13% 33 seats.

If New Democracy indeed wins, a rise in EUR/USD is expected at first, but this may fade as Greece’s troubles are not over, and also Spain is still in trouble.

See how to trade the Greek elections

The first exit polls showed a technical tie between both parties, with all the rest left behind. The party that wins the elections gets an additional 50 seats in parliament (a sixth of seats), so every vote makes a difference.

First Real Results

So now, all the exit polls are out, and the real official results are awaited. First substantial results are expected at around 18:30 GMT, and the final result will be seen only much later.

Update: Some real results are in, from  16.9% of the total votes: ND 31.1 / SYRIZA 25.4 / PASOK 13.6 / IndGR 7.2 / GD 6.8 / DemLeft 5.9 / CommParty 4.4 /

Another update on official results:  OFFICIAL: 19.6% of TOTAL / ND 31 / SYRIZA 25.5 / PASOK 13.4 / IndepGR 7.3 / GoldD 6.9 / DemLeft 5.9 / CommParty 4.4

17:55 GMT: ND 31%, SYRIZA 25.6%.

18:18 GMT -29.2% of total // ND 30.6 // SYRIZA 25.8 // PASOK 13.1 // IndGR 7.4 // GD 6.9 // DemLeft 6 // CommParty 4.4  

It’s important to note that these first official results come from rural areas, and do not necessary reflect the vote in the big cities.

It seems that no party will gain an absolute majority, and that it will be a very long night.

SYRIZA says that according to software company Singular Logic, they have a 1% majority. This is not seen in the official results.

If SYRIZA wins, global leaders (currently in the G-20 summit in Mexico) and central bankers could act fast in an attempt to calm the markets.  Some expect a coordinated action soon.