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Forex Daily Outlook – April 15 2011

US inflation Rate, US TIC Long-Term Purchases and Consumer Sentiment are the major events this day. Here is an outlook on the market-movers awaiting us.

In the US, Core CPI  excluding two volatile components food and energy provides a stable figure at the cost of  disregarding two important sectors in the economy gained 0.2% in February as in the previous month. Analysts expected 0.1% increase. This stable index figure is expected a similar rise of 0.2%.  Meantime CPI measuring the cost of living by comparing basket of goods and services including volatile components increased by 0.5% in February in line with expectations and is likely to gain a similar rise.

More in the US, TIC Long-Term Purchases-representing the balance of domestic and foreign investment and having significant market impact dropped to 51.5B in January following 62.5B in the prior month. A rise to 59.4B is expected now.

Further in the US, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment a survey of consumer confidence conducted by the University of Michigan based on a survey of 500 consumers decreased to 68.2 in March from 77.5 the previous month. A small rise to 68.7 is expected now. This is an important event since this is an early indicator of consumer sentiment.

Additional event in the US, Empire State Manufacturing Index. This seasonally-adjusted  regional economic indicator based on a survey of 175 manufacturing executives a reflective indicator of economic conditions edged up to 17.5 in March following 15.4 in February. A slight drop to 17.1 is forecasted.

Another event in the US, FOMC Member Evans Speaks, Charles Evans President   of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is scheduled to speak at the Levy Institute of Bard College 20th Annual Hyman Minsky conference on the state of the US and world economies, in New York. Traders regard these speeches closely to find clues on future monetary policy decisions.

Finally in the US, Capacity Utilization Rate or operating rate exemplifying a percentage out of the 100% of potential output if the rate of production nears full capacity inflation rises. This indicator dropped to 76.3% in February from 76.4% in the previous month A rise to 77.5% is expected now.

For more on USD/CAD, read the  Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, CPI, CPI measuring the cost of living by comparing basket of goods and services including volatile components increased by 2.6% in February above 2.4% gain expected. A similar rise is predicted now. Meantime, Core CPI excluding two volatile components food and energy gained 1.0% in February less than 1.1% forecasted and below the 1.1% increase in the previous month.

For more on the Euro, read the  EUR/USD forecast.

Event data credit:  Forex Factory

Anat Dror

Anat Dror

Anat Dror Senior Writer I conceptualize, design and create multi-lingual websites. Apart from the technical work, my projects usually consist of writing content for these sites in English, French and Hebrew. In the past, I have built, managed and marketed an e-learning center for language studies, including moderating a live community of students. I've also worked as a community organizer