Forex Daily Outlook – February 25th 2009

Today’s main event is the  Existing Home Sales in the US. British  Revised GDP  didn’t surprise. Also note Bernanke’s testament. Big price action is seen in the Japanese Yen: USD/JPY is at 97, a price not seen for a long time. Are Carry Trades returning?

The day began with Australian data, which was good. Australia continues to be quite “recession-proof”.  Construction Work Done was surprisingly high, rising 1.7% instead of falling by 2% as expected. Also the quarterly  Wage Price Index rose more than expected, by 1.2%.

In New Zealand,  Inflation Expectations stand at 2.3%, which is in the non-deflation zone.

In Europe,  German Final GDP fell by 2.1%, as expected.  Italian Retail Sales were unchanged. British Revised GDP declined by 1.5%, almost at expectations of -1.6%.

At 15:00 GMT, American  Existing Home Sales will be published, expected to be stable at 4.78 million. Barack Obama has a new plan for aiding people that took loans and mortgages. Will this already have an impact on sentiment that will impact  Existing Home Sales? Probably only next month.

At the same time  Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will be testifying in front of the  House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC. Also here, it will be in the shadow of Barack Obama’s speech yesterday about hope for the American economy.

Another speech comes from Scotland today, where  External BOE MPC Member David Blanchflower will be talking. His remarks usually have some effect on the pound.

And to close the day,  Trade Balance in New Zealand is expected to stand at -410 million. And in Australia, the  CB Leading Index is released.