Forex Daily Outlook – March 3rd 2009

This can easily be called “Super Tuesday”: rate decisions from Australia and Canada, Swiss GDP, House Prices from Britain, Pending Home Sales in America and Bernanke’s testament fill up a very promising day in forex trading.

Australia supplies lots of data at the beginning of Tuesday. First Retail Sales are expected to turn negative, dropping by 0.5% after rising in the previous month.

And the big news from down under is the new  Cash Rate: RBA is expected to slash the Australian interest rates to 3%, a 0.25% cut. When looking around, the Australian rate is very high, thus a deeper cut will not be a big surprise. The RBA will issue a Rate Statement.

In the morning, the Swiss GDP will be released. It’s expected to fall by 0.9% after stagnating in the previous quarter. We might see here the impact of the trouble in Eastern Europe.

Also Britain features a big release:  Halifax HPI is expected to fall by 2.3%. British real estate was overpriced, and falls month over month. Also the Construction PMI will be of interest to cable traders on Tuesday. Predictions are for a decline to 34.2.

At 14:00 GMT, Canada will issue a new Overnight Rate, expected to fall to 0.5%, half of the current value. After we’ve seen the GDP fall by 1% in Canada, more than expected, a 0.5% cut looks imminent. The BOC will release an accompanying Rate Statement.

An hour later, the focus will shift back south, as American Pending Home Sales will be released. Contrary to last month’s rise of 6.3%, a fall of 3% is expected. Americans are very careful with spending nowadays and tend to save, as seen in Monday’s spending and saving figures.

At the same time, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify in front of the  Senate Budget Committee. At first, the prepared statement will be thrown to the public, and then, Bernanke’s answers to questions could cause some swings.

If you’re into more talking, Jean Claude Trichet will speak later in the evening. Also in New Zealand,  RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard will be talking in parliament.

That’s it for Super Tuesday. Bit don’t worry, Wednesday also promises action, in this wild forex week.