US Congressional Elections and Australian Rate decision are the main topics on our menu today. Here is an outlook on the market movers of this day.
In the US, Congressional Elections, US voters will head to the polls with the entire House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate at stake. The high level of uncertainty in surveys suggests that many races may be too close to call immediately and some outcomes may not be known until Wednesday. The most recent polls suggest that Republicans will win control of the House, but fall short of winning a majority in the Senate, leading to split control of Congress keeping open the potential for significant surprises. A failure to obtain a distinct majority will not allow bold economic agendas in the market resulting in a standstill policy that would prolong the US market recovery badly affecting the USD.
In Europe, Final Manufacturing PMI – Manufacturing activity in the euro zone advanced at its slowest pace in eight months in September plunging to 53.7 down from 55.1 in A higher reading of 54.1 is expected signaling growth in activity.
In Great Britain, Halifax HPI House prices in September fell by a record 3.6 per cent month-on-month according to a closely watched index, although it tends to be a volatile measure. September’s fall should be seen against a smoother backdrop of quarterly movements. Third quarter house prices, on the Halifax measure, were 0.9 per cent lower than in the second quarter of 2010. Low transaction volumes makes if difficult to obtain a clear reading on the current state of the housing market. A 0.4% rise is expected now.
More in Great Britain, Construction PMI grew more than expected in September reaching 53.8 from August’s 52.1, however once the last of the public sector budget has been exhausted it is likely that we will see a negative impact from the inevitable cuts. A smaller figure of 53.1 is expected now.
Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.
In Switzerland, Swiss retail sales slowed in August to 0.5 percent fter increasing a revised 4.7 percent in July indicating the Swiss economic recovery is cooling with a decreased demand for the currency. A stronger rise of 1.4% is expected now.
In Australia, Australian Rate decision-The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave its official interest rate on hold at 4.5% on October 5, contrary to market expectations of a 25 basis points increase. The CPI result on November 2 is expected to be a key factor in the RBA’s next rate decision. Until then, the same rate is expected to continue.
Later in Australia, AIG Services Index fell 1.9 points in September reaching 45.6, below the 50.0 level due to declines in the communication services and finance & insurance sub-sectors. The index has been below 50.0 for eight of the past nine months and the September result is the fifth consecutive month of slow activity in the services sector. A small rise is expected now.
For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.
That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!
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