Forex Daily Outlook – October 8th 2009

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Rate decisions are due in Britain and in Europe. There are lots of other events in this very busy day. Will the dollar continue falling? Let’s see what’s up for today. Take a deep breath.

Australia’s employment figures were also an excellent positive surprise, and sent AUD/USD above the resistance line of 0.8950. The number pf employees (employment change) rose by 40.6K. Economists had a expected a loss of 9.7K jobs. This rise in jobs was backed by an improvement in unemployment. The Australian Unemployment Rate fell from 5.8% to 5.7%, beating pessimistic expectations for a rise to 6%.

The Australian dollar enjoyed these great figures and made nice gains. AUD/USD broke the resistance line and rose made climbed up to .9040 (at the moment of writing). These week’s events, starting with rate hike have pushed the Aussie far up. For more on the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD Outlook.

In Japan, the Economy Watchers Sentiment was better than expected and rose from 41.7 to 43.1, exceeding expectations. Also the Yen is at a dangerous zone for Japanese policy makers.

In Britain, the CB Leading Index is expected to continue rising. A drop here would hurt the Pound just before the rate decision.

Mervyn King and the other MPC members aren’t expected to move the historically low Official Bank Rate of 0.5% in their decision at 11:00 GMT. Britain will definitely not be the next country to raise rates after Australia.

With no inflation pressures and very slow recovery, they might even try to boost the economy with more money in the Quantitative Easing Program (Asset Purchasing Facility). After shocking the markets two months ago with an expansion of this program to 175 billion, all eyes are on this program. The MPC Rate Statement is expected to shed some more light on the situation.

For more on the Pound, read the GBP/USD Outlook.

In Europe, German Industrial Production works as a prelude to the rate decision. Production is expected to rise by 1.9%, after a fall of 0.9% last time, showing that also this sector in the German economy is strong.

Jean-Claude Trichet is also expected to leave the rates unchanged at 1%. Despite a recovering economy in Germany, prices haven’t really picked up, and there’s no danger of inflation. ECB policy makers fear a strong Euro. We’ll hear about future policy at the ECB Press Conference.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD Outlook.

In Canada, Housing Starts are expected to drop marginally from 151K to 147K. The Canadian dollar is exploring new ground, with USD/CAD dropping to 1.0535, the lowest levels in a year. Later in the evening, BOC Senior Deputy Governor Paul Jenkins will be speaking. For more on the loonie, read the USD/CAD Outlook.

Following the disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls, this week’s Unemployment Claims are expected to decline from 551K to 543K. The US is still far from a growth in jobs. A surprise here will shake the dollar across the board.

FOMC members Jeffrey Lacker and Daniel Tarullo will be talking today in different occasions. The more important speech will come from their boss, Ben Bernanke. He’ll be speaking about the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, and might refer to the bond buying scheme, also known as dollar printing.

That’s it for a very busy day. Happy forex trading!

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About Author

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

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