Forex Daily Outlook – September 30th 2009

A very busy day expects forex traders today. In the US, the ADP Non-Farm Payrolls and GDP stand out. There are very important figures from all parts of the world. Let’s see what’s on the menu today:

Australian Building Approvals disappointed and fell by 0.1% instead of rising. Also last month’s figure was revised downwards. On the other hand, Australian Retail Sales rose more than expected, fueling the Aussie’s drive. In it’s neighbor, New Zealand, the NBNZ Business Confidence rose neatly to 49.1 points (from 34.2).

After Angela Merkel won the German elections, also on improving economic conditions, German Unemployment Change is expected to be on the rise again. This will significantly impact EUR/USD, which is looking for a direction.

Also note the all-European CPI Flash Estimate which is expected to fall by 0.2%, but might surprise after Germany’s prices began picking up. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet will be speaking later today.

In Switzerland, the KOF Economic Barometer is expected to turn positive, giving another boost to the Swiss Franc, aiming for parity.

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is improving, like the NFP. This time it’s predicted to show a loss of 200K jobs, better than last month’s 298K loss.

US Final GDP is expected to be revised downwards, showing a contraction of 1.2% in the second quarter rather than 1%. The third release of GDP will confirm a year long recession. Will it change in Q3 results?

FOMC member Dennis Lockhart will speak today. After saying that the real unemployment rate is actually 16%, his words might move the markets. Also speaking today: FOMC members Donald Kohn and Daniel Tarullo.

The Canadian economy returned to growth last month and rose by 0.1%. This trend is expected to continue, with a second month of growth, this time of 0.4%.

Japanese Tankan Manufacturing Index will be released near midnight GMT, and will surely move the Yen. It’s expected to show another improvement, from -48 to -32. Note that the Tankan Manufacturing Index fell short of expectations in the previous months.

Japanese Retail Sales are expected to stay in the negative zone, falling by 2.4% for a second month in a row.

That’s it for a long day. Happy forex trading!