Forex Weekly Outlook – April 6-10 2009
Weekly Forex Forecasts

Forex Weekly Outlook – April 6-10 2009

This week features rate decisions from Australia, Japan and Britain. There are also lots of major figures from Canada. Due to Easter, Thursday is packed with indicators, and Good Friday is good for resting. Lets’ see what’s on the menu…

Monday, April 6th: The week starts slowly, with European Retail Sales that are expected to drop by 0.3%. Later Canadian Building Permits are predicted to show a smaller drop this month. Also the Canadian Ivey PMI is expected to improve to 46.7. Just before the day closes, New Zealand’s  NZIER Business Confidence is published.

Tuesday, April 7th: The day starts with a new  Overnight Call Rate in Japan. While it’s expected to be left unchanged at 0.1, the accompanying  Monetary Policy Statement will be closely watched by traders. Will USD/JPY push upwards?

Also in Australia, a new  Cash Rate will be issued. Most traders expect it to remain unchanged at 3.25%, but also a small drop is possible.  The accompanying RBA Rate Statement will indicate future policy, and will be closely listened to. Will AUD/USD break resistance?

In Britain,  Manufacturing Production is expected to drop by 1.3%. Given the recent good British data, this figure could be better. Near the end of the day,  Nationwide Consumer Confidence is expected to rise in Britain to 45.

Wednesday, April 8th: Australian Home Loans will start the day, with an expected rise of 1.9%, less than last month.

Later in Europe,  German and French Trade Balance will be of interest, as also  German Factory Orders.

Canadian Housing Starts are expected to shrink to 131K. Along with Building Permits, Canadian housing is still expected to be weak, contrary to American housing that has bounced off the bottom.

FOMC Meeting Minutes will be very interesting this time, especially after the last meeting decided on $1 trillion dollar printing. The document might reveal future plans of the Federal Reserve.

Just before the day closes, Japanese  Core Machinery Orders are expected to dive by 6.8%, showing again that the Japanese industry is suffering.

Thursday, April 9th: Many economic indicators that are usually published Friday are published on Thursday, due to Easter.

Australia starts the day again, this time with employment figures:  Employment Change is expected to drop by 24.8K and the  Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 5.4%.

Unemployment Rate is published also in Switzerland, with an expected rise from 3.1% to 3.3%.  

In Britain, the  Official Bank Rate is expected to stay unchanged, at the historic low of 0.5%. The  MPC Rate Statement will shed light on Quantitative Easing: will it continue or stop?

In Canada,  Employment Change is expected to fall by 54.3K, after last month’s plunge of 82.6K.  Unemployment Rate is predicted to rise from 7.7% to 8%, still behind America…

Trade Balance in both Canada and the US is published at the same time. In Canada, the deficit is expected to deepen to 1.4B, and in the US, expectations are for stability at 36.7K. The USD/CAD will sure shake when these figures are published.

Also in the US,  Unemployment Claims are expected to ease slightly, and show 659K jobless claims, 10K less than last week.

Friday, April 10th: A very light Friday is expected on Good Friday. Notable releases are the Japanese  Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and  French Industrial Production, expected to fall by 1.1%.

Also note the  Federal Budget Balance, published quite late. It’s expected to show a deficit of 148.3B.

Happy Forex Trading!

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.