Take a deep breath. The economic calendar is packed this week. We have GDP from Canada, Australia, Switzerland and Europe. There are rate decisions from Europe and Australia. Employment data will come from Europe, Canada and the US – Non-Farm Payrolls are here.
There are lots more figures from all over the globe. Also note non-standard events: general elections in Japan and the G20 meetings during the weekend. Add to that the return of many forex traders from their summer vacations, and you have one of the most fascinating weeks. Will technical barriers be broken? OK, let’s start:
Monday, August 31st: Immediately after the general elections on Sunday, many economic indicators are released in Japan. Prelim Industrial Production is expected continue rising cautiously, while Retail Sales are predicted to continue dipping, by 3.3% this time. Also note the Average Cash Earnings. Japan’s events today end with a speech by BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa.
Australia’s HIA New Home Sales and Private Sector Credit are also released early in the week, with no big surprises expected.
New Zealand’s NBNZ Business Confidence is an excellent gauge for the economy, and will impact the kiwi.
In Europe, CPI Flash Estimate will be of interest, probably showing more deflation.
Canadian monthly GDP for June is released today, and it’s also expected to return to growth at the end of the second quarter. Some economies have already shown growth.
American Chicago PMI will close the day, with an expected rise.
Tuesday, September 1st: Australian Building Approvals and Current Account start the day. They will only serve as a prelude for the Australian Cash Rate, expected to remain at 3%. Fresh hints for future rate hikes might be supplied in the accompanying RBA Rate Statement.
Swiss GDP for the second quarter is predicted to stay in the red, with and expected contraction of 0.9%. Also note Swiss SVME PMI.
German Retail Sales are predicted to rise by 0.7% after falling last time. The more important release is the German Unemployment Change. This is important for the EUR/USD as well as for the upcoming elections in Germany this month. The all-European Unemployment Rate will also be of interest.
After a bank holiday on Monday, British data starts on Tuesday, with Manufacturing PMI which is predicted to remain above the critical 50 mark and even advance. Halifax HPI, the all-important housing figure will also be published this week, probably continuing to rise.
In the US, ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to cross the 50 mark. At the same time, Pending Home Sales are also expected to grow, following other housing figures.
Wednesday, September 2nd: Australian GDP, which has had only quarter of contraction in this crisis, is predicted to continue growing, this time by 0.6%.
British Construction PMI is another important housing figure. It’s predicted to remain below 50.
European Revised GDP is expected to confirm the small contraction at 0.1%. A surprising growth figure will definitely boost EUR/USD.
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, the preliminary release for Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), is expected to show less job losses, at 250K. This isn’t always a good prediction for the NFP.
Dennis Lockhart, who said last week that the real unemployment rate in the US is 16%, will speak again today, and might shake the markets. More important news from the Fed will come with the FOMC Meeting Minutes. In their last meeting, the only news was that they were slowing the bond buying program, or spilling less dollars.
Thursday, September 3rd: Australia will start the day again, with Trade Balance which is expected to deepen.
British Services PMI is expected to remain above 50 for the fourth consecutive month.
European Retail Sales are predicted to turn positive this time, but the markets will be anticipating a bigger release from Europe.
Jean-Claude Trichet and co. will be releasing the new Minimum Bid Rate at 11:45 GMT. It’s predicted to remain at 1%. Hints about possible rate hikes aren’t expected at the ECB Press Conference, since Europe is suffering from deflation.
American Unemployment Claims were very disappointing in the last weeks. They’re expected to edge upwards, giving us another minor prelude to the NFP.
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, the complementary figure for Tuesday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain under 50, still contracting. The road to recovery is narrow.
Friday, September 4th: In the wake of he G20 meetings, Jean-Claude Trichet will speak again. Finance ministers and central bankers start two day meetings today, and their statements will influence the markets.
Before the NFP, Canada will also release employment data: Canadian Employment Change is predicted to fall by 20K, while the Unemployment Rate is predicted to rise to 8.8%. Later in Canada, Ivey PMI is expected to jump up.
Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to fall by 223K.If these expectations are met, it’ll be the best result since the crisis broke out. Unemployment Rate, which surprised by falling last time, is expected to edge back up to 9.5%.
Will the NFP support last month’s great optimism? Or are the recent jobless claims indicating that it’ll take more time?
That’s it for the major events this week. Quite a week, isn’t it? Here’s another interesting weekly outlook, by Larry Greenberg.
I’ll follow with coverages for the British Pound, the Euro, the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar, as time allows.Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs