Forex Weekly Outlook – December 22-26th 2008

The upcoming week will feature very thin trading due to the holiday of Christmas. Trading will become thinner as week unfolds.

New Zealand Dollar in focus

For those of you not on vacation, an interesting pair to watch this week will be the NZD/USD. A few major economic figures will be released this week in the land of the Kiwi:. The week begins early, Sunday 21:45 GMT, with a release of the  Current Account. It’s expected to drop by 6 billion compared to the previous quarter. Note that in the previous quarter, the figure always failed to reach expectations.

Exactly 24 hours later, Forex traders will receive the GDP figure from New Zealand. Like in other Western countries, a retraction is expected – here at 0.5%. Recession is everywhere.

Another figure to watch is the  Westpac Consumer Sentiment, due on Monday, at 13:00 GMT. This is a good barometer of the consumer sentiment in New Zealand. It will probably be below 100, showing pessimism.

GBP, CAD and USD

This week also presents a few interesting figures in other places. In the UK, the  Current Account is due on Monday, and will be closely watched by traders of the beaten pound.

In Canada, the GDP will be announced on Christmas Eve, on Wednesday. Eager traders on the CAD will not go on holiday before this figure is released. Also in Canada, recession is around – the figure is due to fall 0.3%.

And in the land of the greenback,  Existing Home Sales (4.90M expected)  and New Home Sales (417K expected) will be published on Tuesday. The real estate market, which is in the center of global crisis, will give it’s tone here.  

And just before the holiday, this week’s  Unemployment Claims will come one day early – on Wednesday. They are expected to stay at around  550K. At the same time, 13:30 GMT, the  Core Durable Goods Orders m/m will be release, and will also be closely watched.

Holiday

On Christmas day and Boxing Day, most banks and traders around the world will be closed. Only in Japan, some data will be released, but hardly anyone will look at it. High volume isn’t expected…

Merry Christmas!