Forex Weekly Outlook – June 15-19 2009


After a relatively calm week, the upcoming forex trading week provides many interesting figures: CPI in the US, Britain and Europe, rate decisions in Japan and in Switzerland, and many more interesting figures. Let’s see what’s on the menu:

Monday, June 15th: The first significant indicator is Canadian Manufacturing Sales which are expected to fall by 1.5%.

Here’s a Canadian Dollar Outlook.

In the US, Empire State Manufacturing Index is predicted to fall by 4.8 points. The major release for the day is the TIC Long-Term Purchases which indicates the cash flow of dollars.

Tuesday, June 16th: Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes supplies a strong start for the day. It’s interesting to see what policy makers think. I claim that AUD/USD should become a major pair.

In Japan, the Overnight Call Rate is predicted to stay unchanged, at rock bottom (0.1%). The focus will turn to the BOJ Press Conference which might express more optimism.

In Britain, CPI is expected to rise by only 1.9%. Is Britain also going to experience deflation?

In Europe, deflation is imminent. CPI is expected to stay unchanged. Traders will watch the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, published at the same time.

In the US, Building Permits are expected to stay at 500K, like last month. Housing Starts are expected to rise from 460K to 480K. These two housing indicators will shake the greenback. PPI, Capacity Utilization Rate and Industrial Production will also be released in this busy day.

Wednesday, June 17th: Swiss Retail Sales are expected to climb modestly, by 0.5%. This will affect the Swissy.

Special Coverage for USD/CHF.

In Britain, Claimant Count Change is the prime indicator for the job market. Claims are predicted to be on the rise. Also in Britain, MPC Meeting Minutes are released. No big announcements were made at the last rate decision, but his release is still interesting.

In the US, CPI is expected to rise by 0.3%. Core CPI, which draws more attention, is predicted to rise by only 0.1%. I believe that these figures will be higher. When will Bernanke raise the interest rate?

Ben Bernanke will speak afterwards, and might hint something about inflationary pressures. Also Mervyn King, governor of the BoE, will speak today, and might shake the British Pound.

Thursday, June 18th: In Switzerland, it’s time for the quarterly Libor Rate. It’s expected to stay unchanged, at 0.25%. So, the SNB Monetary Policy Assessment and the following SNB Press Conference will be of interest to traders.

Last time, the SNB intervened in the market to weaken the Swiss Franc. It didn’t really help…

British Retail Sales will shake the Pound. They’re expected to rise by 0.4%. Also note the CBI Industrial Order Expectations which are expected to remain negative.

Here’s a special British Pound Outlook.

Canadian CPI is predicted to rise by 0.4%. Core CPI is expected to rise by only 0.1%. Inflation isn’t hitting Canada. Not yet…

American Unemployment Claims are expected to rise back to 610K, after surprising last week. I’m optimistic, and I believe that the it’ll dip below 600K.

Also note the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and a speech by Timothy Geithner, who occasionally slips something interesting out of his mouth.

Friday, June 19th: No American news this Friday. German PPI will be of interest – it’s expected to fall by 0.2%.

Canadian Retail Sales are predicted to fall by 0.2%, and Core Retail Sales are expected to fall by 0.1%.

That’s it for the major events. Apart from daily outlooks, I’ll probably publish a special focus on the loonie, published! after the Canadian dollar outlooks were quite popular.

Also the British Pound seems very interesting this week. And for a change, the Swissy also gets many indicators…

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About Author

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.