Canadian Dollar Outlook – June 15-19 2009
Canadian Dollar Forecast

Canadian Dollar Outlook – June 15-19 2009

After finishing in the same place as last week, the Canadian dollar awaits an interesting week. 6 key events are previewed here:  Manufacturing Sales,  Labor Productivity,  Leading Index, CPI, Mark Carney’s speeches and Retail Sales. The technical range of the loonie is narrowing. IT’s also discussed here. A Canadian dollar outlook for the third week of June.
  1. Manufacturing Sales: This represents the change in sales at the manufacturers view. The figure impacts future consuming. This is the first Canadian figure for the week, published on Monday at 12:30 GMT, and has importance due to the timing. It’s expected to fall by 1.5% after disappointing last time and dropping by 2.7%.
  2. Labor Productivity: This quarterly figure has surprised in the last quarters, usually by falling instead of rising. Falling productivity eventually turns into higher prices.This time, it’s expected to fall by 0.2%. Published on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT. Being a quarterly figure, it gives a broad view.
  3. Leading Index: This figure is based on 10 economic indicators that we all hear about: orders, housing, employment, manufacturing, etc. Publish on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT.
  4. CPI: This inflation figure is meaningful. Canadian interest rate is at the bottom – 0.25%. A significant acceleration in prices will force the BOC to raise the rate. Currently, CPI is predicted to rise by 0.4%, which is ok. Last time prices fell by 0.1%. Core CPI is also very important, and is expected to show only a small rise of 0.1%.
  5. Mark Carney’s speeches: BOC Governor will speak on Thursday evening. At first, a written statement will be read, and then he’ll hold a press conference which is open to questions. This begins at 18:00 GMT in Regina. As aforementioned, with interest rate close to zero, Carney’s words can move the loonie. In the US, we can already begin talking about an interest rate hike. In Canada, it’s not so close…
  6. Retail Sales: Last but not least, Canadian Retail Sales are published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. This indicator touches Canadian consumers and is the peak this week, especially when no American indicators are published on this day. Retail Sales are predicted to fall by 0.2% after rising by 0.3%. Will they surprise? Core Retail Sales are predicted to stay negative, falling by 0.1%.

Canadian Dollar Technical Analysis

All in all, USD/CAD didn’t move much. It closed the week pretty close to the week’s start. To be precise, USD/CAD finished 12 pips higher. That’s it. During the week, it fell as low as 1.0940.

So, the big technical barriers weren’t tested. 1.1473 remains a very strong resistance line, while 1.08 remains a s very strong support line.

The bottom spot this week, 1.0940, was tested twice, and now serves as a minor support line. Looking up, 1.1250 serves as a minor resistance line.

That’s it. For more on this week’s events, check out the Forex Weekly Outlook.

And here’s an outlook on the British Pound this week.

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Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.