Forex Weekly Outlook – June 29 – July 3 2009

The  king of forex – Non-Farm Payrolls, is published early – on Thursday. There are lots of other major figures in the start of the third quarter:  ISM Manufacturing PMI,    interest rate decision in Europe,  Tankan Manufacturing Index in Japan and a big bulk of data from Britain. Let’s see what’s on the menu this week:

Sunday, June 28th: Yup, there are a few notable releases on Sunday (GMT). In New Zealand,  Building Consents are a major indicator for the country’s economy. Also note the kiwi Trade Balance.

In Japan,  Prelim Industrial Production is expected to rise by 6.9%, after rising last month by 5.9%, The first quarter was devastating, with drops above 9% each time.  Japanese Retail Sales are predicted to fall again, this time by 2.7%.

Monday, June 29th: British Nationwide HPI still hasn’t been published. It might happen Monday, and it’s expected to fall by 0.4%.

Also in Britain,  Net Lending to Individuals, Mortgage Approvals and  GfK Consumer Confidence are released.

In Japan,  Household Spending is predicted to fall once again by 1.3%. The Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 5.2%. Despite an ill economy, the Japanese job market is ok.

Tuesday, June 30th: Japanese  Average Cash Earnings are predicted to fall again, and so are Housing Starts. New Zealand’s  NBNZ Business Confidence is an excellent gauge for the economy.

In Switzerland,  UBS Consumption Indicator might take the hot air out of USD/CHF, after the SNB intervention.

In Europe,  German Retail Sales are expected to drop by 0.1%. The more interesting figure in Germany is the  Unemployment Change which is predicted to rise to 40K. Later in Europe,  CPI Flash Estimate will show more deflation, dropping by 0.2%.

In Britain, the  Current Account is predicted to show a deficit of 5.9 billion, smaller than last time. Final GDP in Britain is predicted to be worse than the early release, and fall by 2.2%.

The Canadain dollar probably won’t enjoy the monthly GDP release – more contraction is predicted.

American figures start kicking in, with Chicago PMI an the  CB Consumer Confidence which are both predicted to rise.

Japan’s major indicator this week is the  Tankan Manufacturing Index which is predicted to improve, maybe helping the Yen.

Wednesday, July 1st: Australia provides a strong start to the new month, with  Building Approvals and Retail Sales, which are both expected to rise nicely.

In Britain,  Halifax HPI might be published today. What’s more certain is the British  Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to advance to 46.1, still less than 50.

American  ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will be a preview to the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. It’s expected to improve to a drop of only 410K.

ISM Manufacturing PMI is predicted to advance again, to 44.1. Pending Home Sales are predicted to continue rising, this time by 1.1%.

Thursday, July 2nd: Australia’s  Trade Balance is expected to remain negative, but almost even. How will commodity prices affect Australia?

British Construction PMI will shake the Pound, in the absence of the interest rate decision.

But in Europe, there still is a rate decision: Jean-Claude Trichet is expected to leave the  Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 1%. He’ll later explain about the monetary policy and Quantitative Easing at the ECB Press Conference, but a bigger event will overshadow his words.

Non-Farm Payrolls is expected to retreat to a loss of 375K jobs. Yup, due to the American Independence Day, NFP is published on Thursday. After last month’s big surprise, estimations are for a small fall.

Unemployment Rate is predicted to rise to 9.6%. Obama “promised” a rate above 10% this year. It’s getting very close.  This early release overshadows also the weekly  Unemployment Claims, which aren’t expected change much.

Also in the US:  Average Hourly Earnings are expected to rise by 0.1%, and also Factory Orders are predicted to advance – by 0.2%.

Friday, July 3rd: With a holiday in the US, forex trading will be quite thin. In Switzerland, CPI is predicted to remain unchanged. Boring…

In Britain, Services PMI is expected to remain above the 50 mark. This complements the Manufacturing PMI from Wednesday.

European  Retail Sales are the last figure released on this short Friday, but they could sure move the EUR/USD. Expectations are for a fall of 0.1%, after last month’s rise.

That’s it. Next week, I’m going on a holiday, so there won’t be daily outlooks…

May you be profitable!