After another week of downfall, the dollar expects many figures this week. Retail sales, inflation figures and housing data are released during the week. There are similar releases elsewhere and a GDP release from Japan at the wake of the new week. Let’s see what major events are expecting us:
Fear is fading away in the past two weeks. More fear means more interest in forex, but isn’t so good for the world…Note that the schedule weighs towards the beginning of the week rather than the end.
Sunday, November 15th: Yes, there are many events on Sunday. New Zealand starts the week with PPI figures which are expected to stay unchanged.
In Japan, Prelim GDP for the third quarter is due. Japan got out of recession Q2, posting a 0.6% growth rate. The trend is expected to continue, with a 0.7% growth.
Monday, November 16th: Britain’s Rightmove HPI is expected to continue rising, showing that the housing sector, badly hurt by the crisis, is recovering. A speech by MPC Paul Tucker and Andrew Sentance are expected later in the day.
In Europe, CPI is expected to fall again, preventing any option of a rate hike. Core CPI is expected to rise by 1.2% (annualized). The Euro zone is now out of recession, but still struggling.
American Retail Sales are predicted to rise by 1% after the depressing fall last time. Also Core Retail Sales are expected to advance.
The Empire State Manufacturing Index is predicted to fall, after a few months of gains. Also note a speech by Ben Bernanke. Hopefully his message won’t be confusing again.
Tuesday, November 17th: Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, will expose the reasons that lead to the second rate hike, and could indicate if another one is due in December. The Aussie reached a new high last week on good employment figures.
Also Switzerland publishes it’s retail sales, which are expected to rise this time.
British CPI is expected to rise by 1.4% (annualized), very close to the bottom of the target range. If it goes under 1%, Mervyn King will issue the BOE Inflation Letter which will explain which measures will be taken to address the situation.
Mervyn King sent the Pound down last week, immediately cooling down good British employment figures.
American PPI is predicted to rise after falling last month. The more important release is TIC Long-Term Purchases, which shows where the dollars are flowing – in or out of the US.
Also in the US: Capacity Utilization Rate is expected and Industrial Production are expected to rise.
Wednesday, November 18th: European Current Account is predicted to show a surplus this time. A speech by Jean-Claude Trichet will also move the Euro.
In Britain, MPC Meeting Minutes are expected to show which members voted for the easy quantitative easing decision, and where the winds are blowing towards the next decision. This is an important event for the Pound. Also note the CBI Industrial Order Expectations which are expected to improve.
Canadian CPI is expected to rise by 0.2% while Core CPI is expected to remain unchanged. It comes before the American CPI numbers, and will cause serious volatility in USD/CAD.
American CPI is predicted to rise by 0.2%, while CPI is predicted to remain unchanged. The stable prices in the US mean low interest rates for a very extended period.
Two housing figures are also due in the US: Building Permits are predicted to rise to 590K and Housing Starts to rise to 610K. Surprises here will move the markets.
Thursday, November 19th: Swiss Trade Balance is expected to show a growing surplus. Switzerland has weathered the economic crisis quite well.
British Retail Sales are expected to rise again, after being unchanged last month. Also Public Sector Net Borrowing is expected to shake the Pound, with a smaller number this time.
In Canada, the Leading Index is predicted to rise by 0.8%, showing a steady recovery of the economy. The Canadian dollar made a nice break last week, enjoying good figures.
Weekly Unemployment Claims surprised last week, and are expected to remain around 500K this time as well. Also in the US, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to rise.
Friday, November 20th: It’s time again for a rate decision in Japan. No worries – no change is expected in the Overnight Call Rate. The focus will be on the official Monetary Policy Statement and the following BOJ Press Conference, which will shed some light on the situation of the Japanese economy following the APEC conference.
German PPI is expected to rise after falling last month. Speeches by Axel Weber and Jean-Claude Trichet will also move the Euro in a rather quiet Friday.
That’s it for the major events this week. I’ll later publish coverages for specific currencies. In the meantime, you’re welcome to read the forex overview of the week that just ended.
- For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
- For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
- For GBP/USD, look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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