Forex Weekly Outlook November 7-11 2011

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An extremely busy week left the dollar stronger against its counterparts. A rate decision in Britain, employment figures in Australia and a speech by Ben Bernanke are the main events this week. . Here is an outlook on the most influential market-movers lined up.

Last week, 80K jobs were added in the US. Although it was a bit under expectations, the drop in the unemployment rate and upwards revisions of previous data offered  some hope. In Europe, the new president of the ECB decided to cut the rates by 0.25% in his first ECB meeting causing European markets to surge. However the political chaos in Greece over the EU bailout proposal keeps everyone edgy. Will Greece accept the bailout deal or quit the euro?

Let’s Start

  1. Ben Bernanke speaks: Wednesday, 14:30. Ben Bernanke head of the Federal Reserve, will speak at the Federal Reserve Conference in Washington. He is likely to talk about the US labor market and the EU debt crisis. His words cause volatility in the market. He might shed some light on the recent rate decision, which contained no policy changes.
  2. Australian employment data: Thursday, 0:30.Australia’s employment figures were promising in September with an unexpected addition of 20,400 jobs after 10,500 decline in August and a drop to 5.2% in unemployment rate following 5.3% in the previous month, indicating a strong economy which can could resist the global financial crisis. The job market is expected to increase by 10,300 and the unemployment rate is likely to rise to 5.3%.
  3. UK rate decision: Thursday, 12:00. The MPC decided to expand the Asset Purchase Facility (or QE program if your wish) by 75 billion pounds to 275 billion. This move, that came somewhat ahead of expectations, triggered a sharp drop in the pound, although the currency recovered afterwards. No change in policy is expected now.
  4. US Trade Balance: Thursday, 13:30. Little changes occurred in the balance of imports and exports in August with a deficit of $45.6. Analysts expected deficit to widen to $46.0 billion. Exports jumped by 3.4% in July and were expected to stop while imports remained flat due to a decline in domestic demand. The deficit is expected to reach $46.1 billion.
  5. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The US labor market seemed to improve with fewer claims for unemployment filed last week dropping to 397,000 from406,000 in the week before. This reading was below the 401,000 expected. Nevertheless, Fed officials believe unemployment will drop below 8% only in 2013. A rise to 402,000 is expected now.
  6.  US Federal Budget Balance: Thursday, 19:00. September Federal budget deficit reached $64.6 billion after a deficit of $134.1 billion in the previous month closing the fiscal year 2011 with $1.299 trillion above last year’s $1.294 trillion deficit. However, the deficit relative to GDP has improved to 8.7% this year compared to 9.0% last year. It is expected to increase to 110.5B.
  7. US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 14:55. U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly dropped in October reaching 57.5 from 59.4 in September. This reading was lower than the 60.2 anticipated by analysts and the main reasons were income declines, poor job market conditions and worries concerning the EU crisis. A rise to 61.3 is forecasted now.

*All times are GMT.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies

Further reading:

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

Anat Dror – Senior Writer

I conceptualize, design and create multi-lingual websites. Apart from the technical work, my projects usually consist of writing content for these sites in English, French and Hebrew.

In the past, I have built, managed and marketed an e-learning center for language studies, including moderating a live community of students.

I’ve also worked as a community organizer

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