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France reported a monthly price rise of 0.5% in March, lower than 0.6% expected. Year over year, the rise is only 0.6%, significantly lower than 0.8% predicted and 1.1% seen in February. Excluding tobacco consumption, prices rose 0.5%, the same as in February.

EUR/USD is still trading on high ground after the break of the second downtrend resistance line, at 1.3840, but is off the highs of 1.3870.

While the flash CPI estimate has the strongest impact for the ECB decision and for the euro, it is not the final read. France is the euro-zone’s (and Europe’s) second largest economy and a change in prices here has an impact on the final decision and is certainly watched by central bankers.

Also French industrial production disappointed with a rise of only 0.1% m/m, instead of 0.3% expected. More euro-zone countries are due to release their CPI numbers: Portugal and Ireland. Spain publishes these numbers tomorrow and Germany is due to release the final CPI numbers. The initial read from Germany fell short of expectations.

The ECB monthly bulletin and Italian industrial production are on the agenda. In the US, jobless claims will garner attention.

For more events, lines and analysis, see the EUR/USD forecast.