Taking a look at the G10 currencies, which are the most vulnerable in August?
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:
Societe Generale Research flags NZD, AUD, CAD, and GBP as the most vulnerable G10 currencies in August.
‘In terms of trading positions, illiquidity and seasonals, the easiest conclusion is that FX volatility is likely to be higher this month. The second easiest conclusion is that the dollar is likely to do well against the high-beta EM and DM currencies. Our EM strategists highlight the risk to BRL and ZAR, in terms of both elevated volatility and weaker spot. We have identified NZD, AUD, CAD and GBP as the vulnerable G10 currencies,” SocGen notes.
This morning’s G10 losers are CHF and NOK, but the trades we picked out for this month were short NZD/JPY and GBP/CHF. With 10yr TIPS yields at -1%, the yen should still shine,” SocGen adds.,” SocGen adds.
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