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The Scottish parliamentary elections are today. What will be the effect on GDP?

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:

MUFG Research flags  the Scottish parliamentary elections on Thursday  as an important event risk for the pound this week.

“The pro-independence parties of the SNP (68), Alba Party (2) and Greens (9) are expected to win 79 out of the 129 seats available,” MUFG notes.

A majority for the SNP on its own could trigger some initial pound selling by strengthening the SNP’s case to hold a fresh independence referendum. However, we share the market’s view that the negative pound reaction this week should be relatively limited…The UK government is unlikely to be sympathetic to calls to hold a fresh independence referendum during the middle of a global pandemic,” MUFG adds.

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