GBP: Setting The Surge For Major Risk Events In June – Credit Agricole


The outlook for the British pound has worsened lately. What is the outlook for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP in the coming months?

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:

Credit Agricole Research flags a key risk event for GBP in the month of June.

“Consistent with our Q220 FX forecasts, the GBP outlook has worsened sharply of late on the back of market expectations of further BoE easing (including negative rates) as well as persistent fears about a no trade-deal Brexit. The selling pressure should persist in our view especially if the BoE acts more decisively by expanding its QE programme more aggressively on 18 June and the EU and the UK fail to agree on extending the transition period at the EU summit on 18-19 June,” CACIB notes.

“Our fair value analysis suggests that GBP/USD could slip to 1.20 or lower and EUR/GBP could rise to 0.92 or higher if no-trade-deal Brexit risks escalate in the coming months,” CACIB notes.

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Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.