GBP: Setting The Surge For Major Risk Events In June – Credit Agricole

The outlook for the British pound has worsened lately. What is the outlook for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP in the coming months?

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:

Credit Agricole Research flags a key risk event for GBP in the month of June.

“Consistent with our Q220 FX forecasts, the GBP outlook has worsened sharply of late on the back of market expectations of further BoE easing (including negative rates) as well as persistent fears about a no trade-deal Brexit. The selling pressure should persist in our view especially if  the BoE  acts more decisively by expanding its QE programme more aggressively on  18 June  and the EU and the UK fail to agree on extending the transition period at the  EU summit on 18-19 June,” CACIB notes.

“Our fair value analysis suggests that GBP/USD could slip to 1.20 or lower and EUR/GBP could rise to 0.92 or higher if no-trade-deal Brexit risks escalate in the coming months,” CACIB notes.