The British pound posted strong gains last week, as GBP/USD climbed about 120 points. The pair closed just shy of the 1.57 line. The upcoming week is a busy one, highlighted by Claimant Count Change and Retail Sales. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD. The US dollar boasted some upbeat data last week, including a strong retail sales report and an excellent consumer confidence report. However, this was not enough to prevent the pound moving higher. British numbers were mixed as Manufacturing Production declined 0.7%, while NIESR GDP Estimate posted a third straight gain of 0.7%. The pound managed to tick up in range, but not make a meaningful breakout. This week could certainly be different. [do action=”autoupdate” tag=”GBPUSDUpdate”/]GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: Rightmove HPI: Monday, 00:01. The indicator has been alternating between gains and declines, and came in at -1.7% last month. The markets will be hoping for a gain in the upcoming reading. CBI Industrial Order Expectations: Monday, 11:00. This manufacturing indicator posted a gain of 3 points in November, following two straight declines. No change is expected in the December reading. Bank Stress Test Results: Tuesday, 7:00. The stress tests will be administered to eight banks and help determine the banks’ stability and new capital requirements. Weak results could undermine confidence in the banking sector and weigh on the pound. The BOE will release its Financial Stability Report and the quarterly Financial Policy Committee Statement at the same time. BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks: Tuesday, 9:00. Carney will host a press conference following the release of the FPC statement. The markets will be looking for clues as to the BOE’s future interest policy. CPI: Tuesday, 9:30. CPI is the primary gauge of consumer inflation and can have a significant effect on the movement of GBP/USD. The index posted a gain of 1.3% last month and little changed is expected in the upcoming release. PPI Input: Tuesday, 9:30. This index measure inflation in the manufacturing sector. The indicator has not posted a gain in 2014 and came in at -1.5% in October. The estimate for the December indicator stands at -1.1%. RPI: Tuesday, 9:30. The Retail Price Index is similar to CPI, but includes housing prices. The index has edged lower in the second half of 2014, coming in at 2.3% in October. The downturn is expected to continue, with the November standing at 2.2%. Average Earnings Index: Wednesday, 9:30. The indicator has been moving higher and climbed to a gain of 1.0% in October, marking a 6-month high. The markets are expecting a stronger reading in November, with an estimate of 1.3%. Claimant Count Change: Wednesday, 9:30. Claimant Count Charge is one of the most important indicators and should be treated by traders as a market-mover. The indicator continues to post declines and recorded a decline of 20.4 thousand in October. The estimate for the upcoming release stands at -19.8 thousand. The estimate for the unemployment rate, which has been above the 6% level since October 2008, stands at 5.9%. MPC Official Bank Rate Votes: Wednesday, 9:30. The previous vote was 7-2, with 2 members favoring a hike in rates while the majority were in favor of maintaining interest rates at 0.50%. The markets are anticipating another 7-2 vote and a different result could affect the movement of GBP/USD. MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes: Wednesday, 9:30. Analysts closely monitor the voting breakdown of the MPC vote on QE, which is expected to be a unanimous 9-0 decision. A non-unanimous vote indicates some dissension by policymakers as to the desirable QE level. Retail Sales: Thursday, 9:30. Retail Sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending, which is a key engine of economic growth. The indicator surprised with a strong gain of 0.8%, well above the estimate of 0.4%. This marked a 6-month high. The forecast for the upcoming release stands at 0.3%. GfK Consumer Confidence: Friday, 00:05. The indicator continues to post readings in negative territory, pointing to ongoing pessimism amongst consumers. Public Sector Net Borrowing: Friday, 9:30. The indicator posted a deficit of 7.1 billion pounds in October, within e expectations. The markets are bracing for a much higher deficit in November, with an estimate of 14.8 billion. CBI Realized Sales: Friday, 11:00. The indicator is based on a survey of retailers and wholesalers. The indicator has been losing ground in recent readings, slipping to 27 points in the previous reading. The upcoming reading stands at 30 points. * All times are GMT GBP/USD Technical Analysis GBP/USD opened the week at 1.5586 and dropped to low of 1.5541. The pair then reversed directions, climbing to a high of 1.5757 and testing resistance at 1.5746 (discussed last week). GBP/USD closed at 1.5699. Live chart of GBP/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”GBPUSD” interval=”60″/] Technical lines from top to bottom We begin with resistance at 1.6130. This line has remained intact since late October. 1.6002 is protecting the psychologically important 1.60 level. This is followed by 1.5911. 1.5746 was tested for a third consecutive week as the pound flexed some muscle. This line was an important support level in January 2013. 1.5625 is an immediate support line. It has switched to a support role following strong gains by the pound. The next support line is 1.5539. 1.5290 was a cushion in July 2013. It is the final support line for now. I am neutral on GBP/USD. The markets will be keeping a close on the FOMC statement, looking for clues regarding a rate hike next year. In the UK, economic numbers have been unspectacular but steady, as the BOE is also expected to raise rates in 2015. In our latest podcast we talk about US jobs, the ECB’s dilemma, a run down of slippery oil and an interesting interview with Itai Furman. Download it directly here. Subscribe to our podcast on iTunes. Further reading: For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook. For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast. For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast. For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast. For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast. USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar. Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer. Kenny's Google Profile View All Post By Kenny Fisher GBP USD ForecastMajorsWeekly Forex Forecasts share Read Next NZD/USD Forecast Dec. 15-22 Yohay Elam 8 years The British pound posted strong gains last week, as GBP/USD climbed about 120 points. The pair closed just shy of the 1.57 line. The upcoming week is a busy one, highlighted by Claimant Count Change and Retail Sales. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD. The US dollar boasted some upbeat data last week, including a strong retail sales report and an excellent consumer confidence report. However, this was not enough to prevent the pound moving higher. 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